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Posted at 1:30 EST. Odds subject to change.

NL Wild Card Game 3

N.Y. Mets over Milwaukee

7:08 PM EST. Jose Quintana (LHP - NYM) is a long-established, capable starter, 13 years and almost 2,000 innings into a career as a mid-rotation starter. Though Tobias Myers (RHP - MIL) just completed his first campaign, he appears set to follow a similar path—xERA is very skeptical of that solid ERA, likely suggesting that someone who strikes out a below-average number of batters and gets a low proportion (36.2%) of batted balls on the ground is likely to allow more home runs than he did this year (18 in 27 starts).

Still, Quintana has been beating his peripherals for more than a decade now, and Myers has shown himself a candidate to tread the same ground. Whether or not that’s the case, this is the playoff version of eating your vegetables. That’s perhaps not a particularly fair characterization of someone with Quintana’s track record—selecting for all pitchers who have logged at least 2,000 innings in the expansion era (a threshold the lefty should reach early next year), just 77 have matched his ERA.

As for Myers, this will be his first action in the playoffs, as well as potentially his most extended usage in weeks: He pitched precisely four innings in each of his final three regular-season starts, the first of that trio coinciding precisely with Milwaukee clinching the NL Central and thus having no need to push the rookie’s workload. It’s still a somewhat puzzling choice in that Myers doesn’t seem to have an obvious limiter on his innings this season as many young starters do in establishing themselves. Including his minor-league innings, Myers has pitched 156.1 frames total in 2024, only 16 more than what had been established as a professional high last year. A long playoff run could theoretically add some 30 or more innings to that slate, though even that count wouldn’t appear to be especially hazardous for his precious elbow ligaments. It’s perhaps beyond us to question Milwaukee’s pitching development team, especially in the instance of another previously unheralded success story, but after logging 105 pitches total in his final two outings it’s possible Myers will have slightly less than his usual stamina. Regardless, he probably won’t be counted on to go deep into a decisive game, thus rendering this one as another 50/50 proposition.

Through two games of this series, the Brewers have required 10.1 innings from their relievers compared to just six for the Mets, though the markedly superior depth the former group contains probably negates whatever advantage the Mets might have gained. Notably, one critical Met has not appeared at all in this series, with New York perhaps hesitant to lean on Edwin Díaz in Game 1 after he logged 66 pitches over the prior two days—and building an 8-4 lead that allowed them to rely on José Buttó and Ryne Stanek. Presumably, the Mets were intending to use their closer in the ninth last night, but Phil Maton’s blow-up in the eighth overrode that plan. In the case of a lead, the Reed Garrett-Stanek-Maton-Diaz gameplan to follow Quintana is likely unaffected by that showing, especially as Maton required just 20 pitches to take the L.

The Brewers look to have essentially everyone available and hale for the decisive game, and likely would even in a less critical contest. Aaron Civale did pitch three innings on Tuesday, but he did only need 35 pitches to finish out the loss…and it’s not especially likely that the Brewers will be turning to him in any case. The five pitchers Milwaukee used to relieve Montas—Tyler Megill, Joel Payamps, Jared Koenig, Joe Ross, and Devin Williams—are essentially the same that they’ll hope to use tonight. None of that quintet required more than Megill’s 22 offerings, and the final trio only required 29 pitches total.

This game mirrors yesterday’s, in that it pits a southpaw Met against a right-handed Brewer, and as such the starters can be expected to be nearly identical to those trotted out yesterday. Through two games in this series, New York has scored 11 runs to 9 for Milwaukee, just a touch ahead of league-wide scoring this year (4.39 runs per game). Among starters, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Ortiz, and Francisco Lindor have failed to record a hit, and only Ortiz has failed to reach base—Lindor, at least, has recently shown he’s ready to deliver in a critical moment.

For the Brewers, whether the bats of Willy Adames and William Contreras can come to life might make the difference in this series, though Brice Turang and Perkins have combined with Jackson Chourio to fashion a formidable facsimile of the three-headed dragon on which the Milwaukee offense is typically dependent. Perhaps of note: In a reversal of typical playoff trends, both teams have struck out considerably less in this short series than they have in the regular season, with Brewers batters getting punched out just in 17.1% of opportunities and Mets batters 19.7%. With both slated starters this year recording strikeout rates below league averages, it’s possible we’ll see another game dependent on contact and with plenty of runners on base or maybe we’ll get one of those playoff games where both sides strike out 15 times and a few solo home runs decide the outcome. With that in mind and without the ability to predict what will happen, the underdog has a great chance to win here and so we’ll stick with it.

Sherwood

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