Pinnacle +136 ET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +130 888Sport +130

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

AL Wild Card Game 2

Kansas City +136 over Baltimore

4:38 PM EST. The combination of Seth Lugo (RHP - KC), Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha has proved to be an unexpectedly potent three-headed monster for the Royals this year, even when most coverage focuses on the team’s work on the other side of the ball. Lugo especially has come into his own this year, heartening to see from an eight-year league veteran. He’s second in the American League in both innings pitched and wins—trailing only Logan Gilbert for the innings crown, and is tied with José Berríos and Carlos Rodón behind Tarik Skubal for wins. He’s pitching more and winning more than he has at any other point in his career, but there are still chinks that can be exploited, like the fact that his best putaway pitch, his curveball, still only retires batters less than 30% of the time. Thing is, the Orioles figure to be gripping their bats a little bit tighter after scoring zero runs yesterday.

Zach Eflin (RHP - BAL) made the jump to Baltimore just before the trade deadline, and has enjoyed a pretty immediate change for the better. In half as many innings as he threw in Tampa Bay earlier this year, he’s picked up as many wins and dropped his ERA nearly a point and a half, from 4.09 to 2.60. This year, he’s in the top 2% of MLB pitchers when it comes to walk rate, with 3.5%.

Tampa wanted to unload Eflin. An early IL stint (back) in 2023 reminded us of his fragility. His creaky knees didn't send him to IL in 2023, but required maintenance. Still, this was an impressive year. His cutter is now entrenched as part of a three-pitch mix, helping this control artist push beyond his pedestrian K%; He also gave back ground ball gains in the 2nd half and now he’s going to need some good fortune on Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) because in play those balls will be.

In the regular season the Royals and Orioles had the 20th and 23rd ranked bullpens for ERA, respectively. Baltimore’s pen also threw significantly more innings than Kansas City (561 innings to 517), and those add up when dealing with arm freshness concerns amid aspirations of a deep stretch run. Félix Bautista’s absence is still acutely felt in Baltimore, but Seranthony Dominguez has attempted to fill the closer’s shoes—he picked up a strikeout and at least prevented the score from getting worse in his ? inning of work on Tuesday.

Thus, once again we’ll turn to value, as this is another 50/50 proposition in which we are being offered a price on the underdog that is worth taking. Of course K.C can close it out here, as Baltimore continues to look lifeless in the preseason, just like they did last year when they were swept by Texas

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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