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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

AL Wild Card Game 1

Kansas City over Baltimore

4:08 PM EST. The Royals really put themselves in a good position by winning their final game against Atlanta (and having Detroit lose to the White Sox), because they get to deploy Cole Ragans (LHP - KC) in a park that’s quite friendly to lefty pitchers. That’ll come in handy when Ragans deigns to let the opposition make contact—he generates an incredible 27% whiff rate on his changeup, and his slider isn’t too shabby at 15%, either. He basically stops throwing the change to same-handed batters, instead ramping up his slider rate but he’ll deploy it early and often against righties, which is going to be a factor in Game 1. You see, the Orioles only feature two consistent lefties (Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser), so they can stack the lineup with righties, although it’s not as potent a crew with Emmanuel Rivera and (potentially) Austin Slater in place of Ryan O’Hearn and (potentially) Cedric Mullins. The O’s are above-league average as a team against those offspeed offerings, but Ragans is going to dance with what brung him.

If you haven’t closely tracked Corbin Burnes’ (RHP - BAL) season, you might be under the impression that while he was good, he wasn’t really quite himself. You wouldn’t be wrong, but he also ended his campaign with a 2.92 ERA in 194 innings, closely mirroring his very strong 2022 season on both counts. Where things get fuzzy is his continued dropoff in strikeouts, as he changed the shape of his signature pitch and started bleeding punchouts. Things came to a head in August, where the altered pitch just wasn’t cutting it and he seemed to get things back on the right track in September, with a 1.20 ERA (2.77 xERA), and 31 strikeouts in 31 innings across five starts to close out the season. It’s no coincidence, either, that September was his first month using the cutter more than 50% of the time—his confidence in the pitch is back and deservedly so.

Like Ragans, Burnes will shelve the changeup against same-handed batters, but he also ditches his regular slider (but will continue to throw the sweeper). A key difference between the two is how they use (or don’t) the top of the zone. Ragans will chase plenty of whiffs there, while Burnes has avoided the modern approach and stays focused at the bottom of the zone and on the edges. Both managers will ride their starters deep, as both are built for it—and neither is too excited to go to the pen, regardless. If you miss the days of the starting pitcher as the headline event, you’ll love this game.

The bullpens of both these teams are erratic and untrustworthy so give an edge to nobody. Much like the Detroit/Houston Game 1, this, too, looks like a 50/50 proposition and it is for that reason that we’ll keep scooping up prices on 50/50 propositions because over time, it is a winning formula.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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