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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

NL Wild Card Game 1

Milwaukee -1½ over N.Y. Mets

5:30 PM EST. A quick look at Luis Severino’s (RHP - NYM) numbers and you’ll see that he bounced back after a dreadful 2023 that forced him to sign a pillow contract with the Mets. He landed gracefully, though not much changed. A lot of his stuff stayed the same. The four-seamer he leads with was inoffensive, though he pared down its usage a decent bit. His slider and changeup were legitimate weapons. The results were better, fueled by the best home run rate he’s posted in six years, but even that was still a smidge worse than the average pitcher this year. You might notice that he’s had his best fortune on balls in play (.286) since his first full year as a starter (.272) and write it off, but that would overlook a newly added sinker that he threw a quarter of the time. Something like that can provide a single option that becomes a big deal. Pairing it with his changeup will be critical to keep a pesky Brewers offense off balance.

As for Freddy Peralta (RHP - MIL), he continues to be a fascinating example of the Brewers’ player development apparatus. He is capable of manipulating both his fastball and slider into different shapes depending on what the moment calls for. That hasn’t necessarily been a good thing this year. His heater, in particular, took a step back this year and was much closer to a neutral pitch, and the slider shape got worse but his locations were excellent. As tends to be the case, the Brewers appear to know something about his changeup. Only JP Sears threw it as much as he did while having worse characteristics, but it accounts for nearly 18% of Peralta’s offerings. Keep an eye on that: Mets hitters generated the second-most offense against those.

Here’s the problem with backing the Mets today: Their bullpen. New York played a doubleheader yesterday, which decided whether or not they were even going to make it to the postseason. New York’s doubleheader yesterday means that Huascar Brazoban and Adam Ottavino?—who each pitched in both games?—are almost certainly unavailable. Edwin Diaz probably is, too, considering he went 1.2 innings yesterday and threw on Sunday, too. As a group, they offer high strikeout rates and high walk rates. If Severino can’t go at least six (or even five) innings, they could be walking a tightrope with no safety net.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee has a top-five bullpen that can shorten a game like almost no other team. Anyone you’ll see on a regular basis is an above-average arm that is ungracious when it comes to giving up a free pass. You can’t even consider Devin Williams an exception because of how he strikes out hitters at a higher rate than pretty much anyone. Everyone except Milner and Hall is working on at least three days’ rest, meaning they’re better-prepared to cover innings if Mets hitters get to Peralta early.

Furthermore, the Mets are solid in exactly three spots?—shortstop with Francisco Lindor, left field with Brandon Nimmo, and catcher with Francisco Alvarez. This is the kind of thing you’re hoping to say to describe a Jenga tower, not the defense of a major-league team that made a wild run to the playoffs. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s defense is elite. All over the roster, they’re stocked with a combo of guys who are straight-up Dudes when it comes to picking it.

Offensively, this is the fourth facet of the game that we’re considering and the third in which Milwaukee looks markedly more competent than their opponents when considering individual player profiles. A bird’s-eye view makes them look like a finely tuned Rube Goldberg machine, pieced together just right to make everything move along in a cartoonish but effective fashion. They steal bags and walk more than just about any other team and also drive homers at a modest rate. The total package is one we haven’t seen in the playoffs in a long time. They’re annoying the way a sibling can be?—they know they got you, and it’s only more satisfying to them the more you realize it.

Meanwhile, New York is built on the long ball, checking in with the sixth-most homers in the league in an effort to balance out their suboptimal walk and strikeout ratios. Plus, there is only one Francisco Lindor, who almost single-handedly willed the team to this point. The offense might be the team’s best shot at stealing a game after a harried end to the regular season but frankly speaking, the Mets are up against it here after playing two yesterday, not to mention the emotional letdown for which there is no time to recover from. Huge value on the Crew to win going away in Game 1.

Sherwood

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