Pinnacle +116   BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +110  888Sport +110

Posted at 3:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Washington +110 over Kansas City

6:45 PM EST. DJ Herz is coming off arguably his worst start of the year, but those disasters have been few, so we are banking on a bounce back tonight. On the year, Herz has a solid 103/33 K/BB ratio in 83.2 IP, and his xERA is 3.32, which is almost a full run lower than his surface number (4.30). The K’s are legit, too, as his Swing & Miss rate is a gorgeous 13.1%.

Michael Lorenzen (RHP - KAN) starts here after a stint on the 15-day IL, nursing a hamstring injury. Lorenzen has been out since the end of August and has been limited in his two rehab starts, and he’s expected to have a pitch count tonight. Lorenzen has a solid 3.42 surface ERA, but his xERA is a bloated 5.00, and the rest of his underlying metrics are not strong either, including a high strand rate, a low Batting Average of Balls in Play, and a weak 9% Swing & Miss rate.

The Royals are tied with the Tigers at 83-74, with both teams holding one of the final two Wild Card spots after the O’s clinched last night. With Kansas City still fighting, there is an expectation in the market that the Royals will show up to play tonight in a “must-win,” as they sit two games up on the Twins and 2½ on the Mariners with less than a week to play. Meanwhile, the Nationals have “nothing” to play for because they are missing the playoffs again. That is a market inefficiency that we can try to take advantage of, as the role of spoiler is one to be realized. The Nationals have two more games to make life as difficult as possible for K.C. before heading to Atlanta to close out the season.

Sherwood

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