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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Toronto over Texas

8:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays scored eight runs in a 13-8 loss to these same Rangers last night in what was a long, drawn out game that saw the Jays’ pen get abused. We don’t know if the Jays offense will sputter or stay hot but what we do know is that Toronto’s starter and offense cannot be an underdog to Texas here. That makes the Jays very playable despite the fact that Cody Bradford (RHP - TEX) is on our radar as an underpriced starter. We’ll wait for when the Rangers are an underdog when Bradford starts to step in, as his ERA is inflated by wonky hit/strand rates. Bradford is a soft-tosser that flashed fine control, but he's missed fewer bats as he's moved up and his fly-ball lean (48%) enhances his HR risk. That said, this wager is all about getting behind Bowden Francis (RHP - TOR)

Two years ago, Bowden Francis got rocked by the Mets. On September 15, 2022, he lasted just 2.1 innings, giving up six hits and four runs including a long ball to JT Riddle. It was the 23rd gopher ball he surrendered in his first 90 innings that season, inflating his ERA to 6.90. Don’t worry, your memory isn’t failing. Riddle never played for the New York Mets—Bowden was pitching for the Buffalo Bisons against the Syracuse Mets. Even though he made his MLB debut that season—facing three batters in the ninth inning of a 7-1 loss on April 27—he was a failing 26-year-old swingman in Triple-A. Usually, the next steps from there are down and out of affiliated baseball.

Instead, this happened:

Every AL/NL pitcher in history to pitch at least 48 innings and allow no more than 27 baserunners in any span of 7 starts:

1. Bowden Francis (his last 7 starts)

That's it. That's the list.

In four of his last six starts, Bowden has allowed exactly one hit and lasted at least seven innings. On both August 24 and September 11, he took no-hitters into the ninth inning. Just about any MLB pitcher can have a freak special outing, and the first one was against the Troutless Angels which almost shouldn’t count but his numbers since becoming a full-time starter on August 7 would make Dave Stieb blush. Over his last seven starts, he has given up 16 hits in 48 innings with five walks and four hit batters. That’s exactly one hit every three innings and just over one baserunner every two frames. Two of those hits were home runs to Taylor Ward and Francisco Lindor on his fourth time through the order as he tried to close out no-hitters unsuccessfully.

The secret to Francis’ sudden dominance is this unique pitch which no one else in MLB can imitate. His actual best pitch is a splitter he just picked up this year that has become his top secondary weapon. He has thrown 263 of them with great success. His best pitch is peak Francis, not just because he got weak whiffs from some of baseball’s best players, but because in his last start, it was his 110th pitch of the outing in the ninth inning of a no-hit bid. His 111th pitch was a fastball that got too much of the plate and Francisco Lindor drilled it into the seats.

His evolution from back-of-the-roster reliever to AL Pitcher of the Month in August coincides with his increased splitter usage. He also started mixing in a brand-new sinker against same-side opponents that has yielded only one hit in a month and a half—and even that was only a popup with a 67.8 mph exit velocity. What has really set him apart since early August has been his command. He has good stuff, but he didn’t suddenly co-opt Paul Skenes’ arsenal. In fact, his velocity on all his pitches is below average, but he’s using more of the strike zone and getting hitters to chase outside of it.

The 2024 season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Blue Jays, who reside in last place. Francis has been a revelation though that is still very much underpriced. Incidentally, JT Riddle is hitting .220/.295/.376 for the Lexington Legends of the independent Atlantic League. It seems like the days of playing in Buffalo and Syracuse are in the rearview mirror for them both.

Sherwood

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