Pinnacle +176  BET365 +165 portsinteraction +165  888Sport +165

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

L.A. Angels +165 over Minnesota

7:10 PM EST. Zebby Matthews (RHP - MIN) has struggled of late, allowing 13 runs over his last two starts. Before these rough outings, Matthews allowed two earned runs or less in three starts with 13 strikeouts over 15 innings pitched. Dude has made five starts in his major league career and now he’s being asked to spot a price of 2-1 or thereabouts. That’s absurd and even more absurd now that there’s film on him for players to study. No question, the Twinkies can win here but we don’t care, as we continue to attack overpriced favorites.

It’s hard to look at the Angels minor league projection bets the last seven years or so and find much value, as it's a veritable wasteland of organizational misreads and developmental errors, and for some time Jack Kochanowicz (RHP - LAA) looked like another in that long procession of failure. To be fair, he’s certainly not a success story or even fixed, it’s that the trail has been so littered with implosions that even a mild improvement from previous misery can be construed as a kind of success.

Enter the gargantuan Kochanowicz, all 6’7” and 228 pounds of him, who was picked in the 3rd round back in 2019, who registered his only sub-4.55 ERA run a 23.2 IP trip through high-A last season. Back in his draft year, Kochanowicz’s arm was high 3/4s utilizing a four-seamer that sat in the low 90s. Now he’s a low-slot sinker-baller who sits 96, touches 99, and generates an extreme amount of ground balls (62.3% in 2024). That velocity increase also helped his otherwise firm high-80s change-up generate sufficient velocity delta off his fastball and has helped the pitch play up into a swing-and-miss offering. Kochanowicz’s propensity to generate weak contact has been on full display in his first seven big league starts. Bottom line is that he gets out and gets them quickly. He’s often at the mercy of batted balls in play but we don’t care, as he’s not the rookie here spotting 2-1 so he now becomes a very decent value play based on his past performances (five quality starts in seven tries) and his ability to get outs quickly. It’s not like the Twins are killing it these days either.

Sherwood

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For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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