Pinnacle -1½ +150 BET365 -1½ +145 Sportsinteraction -1½ +145 888Sport -1½ +145

Posted at 3:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Philadelphia -1½ over Houston

6:40 PM EST. Aaron Nola (RHP - PHI) is coming off a start in which he allowed two runs on eight hits while striking out five and walking two over 5.1 innings last Wednesday vs. the Braves. Nola did not factor into the decision, and he’s now gone seven straight starts without a win, but he has a 3.63 ERA over that span with 31 Ks in 39.2 IP while sporting some very unlucky underlying numbers, including an inflated Batting Average of Balls in Play of .363 and a high strand rate of 85.3%. A lack of wins has Nola’s stock down, and we’re looking to buy, especially with the stiff that is lining up across from him.

We’re going to fade Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) until we can’t fade him anymore. Last Wednesday vs. Boston was his most recent turn, and in it, Verlander took the loss, and while his stat line of two runs on four hits with 5 Ks and 1 BB looks good on paper, the 41-year-old looked like a middle-aged pitcher who hadn’t thrown a big league game in over two months. Verlander has now made 11 starts this season, spanning 62 IP, and he has posted his lowest swing-and-miss rate in over a decade while also putting up a sub-60% first-pitch strike rate. He also has an xERA (4.89) that is nearly a run higher than his surface number (3.92), and his groundball rate is at a career-low 24.7%. That’s never going to be a strong suit for Verlander, but when combined with his dip in K production, it presents opportunities for those extra fly balls to turn into home runs.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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