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Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cincinnati over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. It’s not clear what Carson Spiers’ (RHP - CIN) role will be in this game, as he could either be tabbed as an “opener,” start and pitch deeper into the contest, or work in a bulk relief role behind another Reds arm. In his last start, Spiers followed an opener, but prior to that, he had started his eight previous appearances. Regardless, we aren’t here to discuss Spiers or whomever the Reds will send out tonight to face the Blue Jays.

The Jays, like many teams (Reds included), are one that bring potential appeal as a pooch, but when they are favored, they are worth a long look as a fade target. The same could be said for starter José Berríos (RHP - TOR), who is coming off a couple of wins, but it’s worth noting that those were against the Angels and A’s, and against the Halos, he was an underdog. Furthermore, he posted an incredibly lucky 100% strand rate in both of those turns. That said, back-to-back wins have Berríos’ stock on the rise, so we are going to “sell” on him here, as he’s been up and down all season. Berríos has a high strand rate (82%) and a bloated xERA of 5.10, which are masked by a 3.85 surface ERA. His strikeouts are down considerably this year, as is his swing & miss rate, which has dropped from 11% in 2023 to just 8.3% this season.

Sherwood

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Detroit    +134

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