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Posted at 12:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ over St. Louis

6:40 PM EST. After becoming the fourth pitcher in KBO history to lead the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts in 2023, Erick Fedde (RHP - STL) inked a two-year, $15 million contract with the White Sox (these teams/GM’s never learn). Now a member of the Cardinals following a trade deadline deal, he has amassed a 3.34 ERA in 126 IP. Has it come with skills backing? Nope!

Fedde’s K% is a tick below average for MLB starting pitchers and his subpar swing and miss rate offers little hope for upside. He has two pitches that have garnered a swing and miss rate better than 10%, but neither of them better than 12% (slider: 12%, 20% usage; cutter: 10%, 31% usage). His BB% ranks average, but a 38% Ball% hints at some BB% downside to be sure. As is, Fedde’s xERA tells us these are the skills of a near 4.50 ERA pitcher. Fedde compiled a 5.41 ERA and 8% K-BB% in 454 MLB IP prior to his 2023 stint in Korea, so the new version is an improvement. However, the underlying metrics indicate he isn’t as improved as it seems. Erick Fedde now has a little added pressure on him, he’s never been very good and he didn’t go to Korea because he likes spicy pork Deopbap. He went because nobody wanted him in this era of teams in desperate need of pitching.

Meanwhile, Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) has lock-down numbers against the Cardinals (high-strikeout .567 OPS). His dominant six-start June 30-Aug. 3 stretch (0.48 ERA in 37.2 IP) opened with a turn against the Redbirds and there’s no reason to believe Greene can’t dominate again.

Sherwood

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