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Posted at 12:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Minnesota -1½ over Kansas City

7:40 PM EST. Seth Lugo (RHP - KC) is facing a Minnesota Twins’ offense that had been hot in the second half but it's one that has cooled over the last week. Over their last two series (vs. CHC. CLE), the Twins have slashed a mere .230/.270/.401 (.671 OPS). Lugo sports a 2.72 ERA through 24 starts covering 155 innings and one would be hard pressed to find five more starters in the game that have been more consistent (on paper) than Lugo. Why then is Seth Lugo and Royals taking back a price like this against a first time starter (Minnesota was -135 at the time of this writing). The price on a rookie making his first start instantly caught our eye and we have to trust that oddsmakers are attempting to entice Kansas City money. Buyer beware! Incidentally, collectively, current Minnesota batters own a .786 against Lugo, who himself has run alternately hot and cold in compiling a 4.54/5.13 ERA/xERA across his last five efforts. Lugo’s struggles are well hidden inside that very fortunate 2.72 ERA.

Enter Zebby Matthews (RHP - MIN). With an opening in their rotation, the Twins are calling up 24-year-old Zebby Matthews to make his major league debut. A 6’5”, 225-pound right-hander, Matthews started the year at High-A, then made nine starts at Double-A, and another four starts at Triple-A, and now he will get his first major league start.

Four levels in one year indicates talent, and Matthews has that. Matthews never met a walk he liked. We can talk about strikeout-to-walk ratios, but he almost breaks the scale with a minor league career 232 strikeouts to just 22 walks. He throws a 4-seamer at 95 mph that can reach 97. His sweeping low-80s slider that he throws down in the zone is his next best pitch. He also throws a mid-80s changeup and an upper-70s curve. It’s not really pitch quality that makes him stand out (though he does throw hard), but his command and control excel. He can add and subtract from all his pitches while using the same arm speed and slot. And he can put the ball anywhere he wants it to go, which will make his pitches play up. He began the year with 28 strikeouts to zero walks in High-A, before a mere 10-to-1 ratio in Double-A, and finally a more Matthews level of 23 strikeouts to one walk in Triple-A. Dude can pitch and oddsmakers are rolling the dice that he dazzles at this level too. So will we.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Detroit    +134

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