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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

St. Louis over Kansas City

8:10 PM EST. Miles Mikolas (RHP - STL) is not our target here, but we’ll note that while his ERA is a bloated 5.12, his xERA is nearly a run lower, and he’s had some bad luck along the way this season. Most notable is his low strand rate of just 65.3% and his inflated Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) of .304. Mikolas has just 22 BB in 128.1 IP, so better days could be coming as well as a correction to the good of his surface numbers.

Michael Lorenzen (RHP - KAN) is smoke and mirrors, as he brings just 80 Ks with 50 BBs in 107.1 IP into this start, which is his 20th of the season. Lorenzen has a nice surface ERA of 3.62, but his xERA is 5.04, and he has a weak swing & miss rate of just 8.9% and a weak called and swinging strike rate of 25.5%. Unlike Mikolas, Lorenzen has a horseshoe up his ass, as he posts both a high strand rate (81%) and a low BABIP (.246). Dude is playing with fire and is absolutely a fade target when favored.

Sherwood

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