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Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cleveland +125 over Philadelphia

1:35 PM EST. Joey Cantillo (LHP - CLE) missed the first two months of the season due to a hamstring strain. He returned in late May and was brought along slowly. It has only been in his last two starts in Triple-A where he pitched at least 5 innings in a start. Injuries have been the story of his career – he’s missed significant time since signing as a 16th round pick in 2017. Cantillo has been victimized by oblique, shoulder and hamstring issues. Durability may always be a concern but he has talent that could be leveraged by the Guardians. When he’s on the mound, he has fairly good stuff, enhanced by his angle to the plate and natural extension. His fastball sits between 92-96 mph, though it is an average pitch at best. Cantillo’s best offering is a 79-83 mph change-up that is a true swing-and-miss pitch that features devastating late action. It is potent against both lefties and right-handed hitters. Cantillo shows two breaking balls and neither are particularly strong. The 81-84 mph slider is the better of the two and the slow curveball is more of a show-me pitch. In addition to the lack of a dependable breaking ball, his control leaves lots to be desired. He has the ingredients to be a solid back-end starter but will need to stay on the mound and polish his command. Cantillo has a career 3.03 ERA, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9.

That’s not the scouting report you want to hear when backing a dude but he does strike out guys and he’s likely not going more than three or four innings anyway and that’s if things go swimmingly. Besides, this wager is not about getting behind Cantillo, it is about fading Philadelphia’s garbage starter going up against a very good Guardians’ squad.

Kolby Allard (LHP - PHI) cannot be priced in this range even if the game was final. Allard will make his season debut here, he’s never been good and now he’s priced like he’s Aaron Nola? Da f**k is that?!! An oblique strain followed by shoulder inflammation made last year a lost year for Allard, which may have been a blessing. Deep woes v righties make him unrosterable and unplayable as a starter when he’s favored. That leaves relief work, during which he's inflicted a 6.68 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 62 IP during his career with subpar skills. At Double AA this year, Allard started three games and was torched to the tune of a 8.31 ERA. At Triple AAA, he started 10 games, won 2, lost 7 and pitched to a 5.60 ERA. We frankly have no clue what’s going to occur in this game but the total is 10 and we wouldn’t be surprised if the Guardians put up 10 on their own. Kolby Allard is a big favorite today and it’s absurd. Play the value.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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