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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Chicago over Texas

1:10 PM EST. Jonathan Cannon (RHP - CHI) is a young pitcher who has been on our radar since his call-up, but today, this wager is not about him. That said, Cannon has been pitching well enough to hold down a rotation spot for the White Sox, and he’s eating up innings, going at least 6 IP in three straight turns. While his surface stats are modest at the moment, Cannon has all the tools to be a front-end starter, and there’s great value in him because he’s still very under the radar.

Signs of age are starting to creep in for Max Scherzer (RHP - TEX). Unsurprisingly, Scherzer's xERA is awful, suggesting poor skills with luck factors in his favor. However, it's worth noting Scherzer's xERA in 2023 was a career-worst, signaling possible red flags. In the early 2024 sample, Scherzer's K-BB% and swing & miss rate look brutal compared to recent seasons. We saw a slight decline in 2023 via the K-BB% and swinging strikes.

Scherzer's velocity dipped below 94 mph in 2023 and under 93 as he ramps up in 2024. Though it's common for pitchers to lose velocity as they age, we want to be cautious about it bouncing back, especially after returning from an injury. Scherzer's four-seamer lost vertical and horizontal movement over the past two seasons.

It's typically not a profitable bet to assume a player's skills bounce back when factoring in injury recovery and age. The slight and gradual decline in velocity and swing and miss rate over the past two seasons strongly suggests that Scherzer should no longer be favored in this range. Name value aside, Scherzer's likely scenario involves an average starting pitcher that is priced like an elite one. It's unlikely to expect and see a high-end or near-elite starting pitcher for the rest of the season. The fade is on.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Detroit    +134

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