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Posted at 12:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Chicago over Baltimore

6:35 PM EST. Justin Steele (LHP - BAL) has been on a nice roll, clocking a 2.06 ERA/3.07 xERA over his last 35 IP. Steele, who has held opposing batters to a .570 OPS the third time around the order, has given the Cubs six-plus innings in six straight starts. Now the Orioles can hit, but Steele, whose road ERA sits at 2.79, may be catching Baltimore at an opportune time, as the O’s own a subdued .697 OPS over their last 10 games.

The discrepancy in pitching talent here is palpable, as Baltimore will send Albert Suárez (RHP - BAL), who is a reliever masquerading as a starter. His 2.48 ERA has him on the radar, but that too is a fugazi, as his xERA is much higher at 4.65. Suárez is either finally finding his best self at 34, or he’s been very fortunate, which his high strand rate would suggest. In his 65.1 IP, Suárez has just 51 Ks to 23 BBs, and he’s a groundball pitcher that has a weak groundball rate of 33.5%. In his two years in Korea, that GB% was over 60%, and in his 105.2 IP in the majors in 2016 and 2017, it was over 45%. Overlay.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Detroit    +134

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