Tampa Bay @ Texas
Tampa Bay -105 over Texas

Pinnacle -105 BET365 -110 Sportsinteraction -110 888Sport -110

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Tampa Bay over Texas

8:05 PM EST. Michael Lorenzen (RHP - TEX) went through a roller coaster 2023, but through all the ups and downs, his xERA was consistently mediocre, his whiffs disappeared, and he lost his GB% tilt. Here in 2024, it’s been more of the same for Lorenzen, as he’s 4-4 with a bloated xERA of 5.07. A high strand rate and a low Batting Average of Balls in Play suggest he’s been lucky, too, which is saying a lot. In his last start, Lorenzen gave up five runs on four hits and walked four in 5 IP versus Baltimore. Lorenzen is, at best, just a back-of-rotation pitcher whose luck is primed to dry up.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen Shane Baz (RHP - TB) in action, as the former top pitching prospect underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. If we forgive that injury-plagued year and look back to 2021, we could see the seeds of a top-flight starter beginning to sprout. In Baz’s last five games with Triple-A Durham, he posted a 1.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.4% walk rate, and 36.5% strikeout rate in 23 innings. The Rays are probably going to be careful with his innings, as he'll still be only 25, but Baz is well worth a speculative bid in a game where he is the superior starter by a country mile.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)

Cincinnati -1½ +114 over Miami
Washington +130 over Milwaukee