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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Washington over Tampa Bay

4:10 PM EST. It’s getting to the point that when a pitcher gets traded to Tampa, it's time to mortgage the farm for him. This example, Aaron Civale (RHP - TAM), put up consecutive strong months after being acquired at the trade deadline last year. His whiffs soared late too (12.9% swing and miss rate in Sept) but this year, we’re understanding why the Guardians didn;t care about losing him. Poor health aside (he's had 200 IL days since the start of 2021), Civale appears to be laboring. In 16 starts, only five have been of the quality variety. In 16 starts, he has two wins. He also has a 5.21 ERA to match his xERA of 4.66. His swing and miss rate is low at 10% and his groundball rate is low at 31%.

Meanwhile, we’re coming right back on the pesky Nationals today, as Jake Irvin (RHP - WAS) is enjoying a breakout campaign, putting up a quality 3.61 xERA and holding right-handed batters to a .558 OPS. Four of his last seven starts have resulted in true quality starts. He has done his best work on the road where in 10 starts he is 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 59 IP. Dude is throwing strikes (10 K’s in his last start), he’s inducing grounders and he almost always gives the Nats a better chance of winning than losing.

Sherwood

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