N.Y. Mets @ Chicago
N.Y. Mets -1½ +133 over Chicago

Pinnacle -1½ +133 BET365 -1½ +125 Sportsinteraction -1½ +125 888Sport -1½ +125

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

N.Y. Mets -1½ over Chicago

2:20 PM EST. Tylor Megill (RHP - NYM) is not the target here, but we’ll note that he picked up the win in his last start, which was last Sunday vs. San Diego, where he allowed two runs over five innings while punching out five and walking two. While not overpowering, Megill has been a steady hand for the Mets, and in that start versus the Padres, he generated at least one whiff on six different pitches. Megill's surface ERA of 3.52 is just fine, but his xERA is 2.62. He’s been unlucky with a bloated Batting Average on Balls in Play (.325) and a low strand rate (66.5%). Megill has 37 Ks in 30.2 IP with 13 BBs and a solid swing-and-miss rate of 12.5%.

We are here to fade Jameson Taillon (RHP - CHC), who in 6 IP against the Cardinals last Sunday gave up two runs on seven hits while striking out just three in a loss. The Red Birds hit Taillon hard all night, but they were not able to make him pay for his mistakes as he wiggled out of trouble time and again. Taillon brings a 3.08 surface ERA into this start vs. the Mets, but his xERA is up at 4.51. Taillon has seen a drop in his K-rate this season (8.16 K/9 to 6.31 K/9), and he has just 43 Ks in 61.1 IP while posting a puny swing-and-miss rate of 8%, which is his career low. The Mets are red-hot, and the wind is blowing out at Wrigley so we'll back New York on the run-line (-1½) in this spot versus a stiff like Taillon.



Our Pick

N.Y. Mets -1½ +133 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)

Cincinnati -1½ +114 over Miami
Washington +130 over Milwaukee