Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
Tampa Bay +146 over Minnesota

Pinnacle +146 BET365 +140 Sportsinteraction +140 888Sport +140

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Tampa Bay over Minnesota

7:07 PM EST. The Twins won in walk-off fashion to open this series last night, and they’ll send Joe Ryan (RHP - MIN) to the mound for his 15th start of the season. Thus far, Ryan has been steady, but he’s not priced like he’s “steady” because the Twins have won six in a row and are 41-32 while the Rays are under .500. That said, four of those wins came against the A’s while another was versus the Rockies.

Taj Bradley (RHP - TB) earned the win against the Cubs on Thursday, allowing two (unearned) runs on three hits and two walks with 11 strikeouts over seven innings. Tonight, he faces a Twins team that ranks 19th in average versus RHP. In that start versus Chicago last week, Bradley dazzled with 17 swinging strikes on 104 pitches, and he tied his career high in Ks. Through 38.1 IP this season, Bradley sports a 1.10 WHIP with 50 K to 12 BB across seven starts. His ERA is 4.44, but his xERA is over a run lower at 3.12, and his swing-and-miss rate is at an elite 14%. Bradley is too good to be taking back an inflated price like this, and we’re going to try to capitalize on that market inefficiency with a wager.


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For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay +146 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)

Cincinnati -1½ +114 over Miami
Washington +130 over Milwaukee