San Diego @ Philadelphia
San Diego +123 over Philadelphia

Pinnacle +123 BET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +115 888Sport +115

Posted at 2:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

San Diego over Philadelphia

6:40 PM EST. Michael King (RHP - SD) is enjoying a breakout season, and he’s coming off his best strikeout performance of the year in which he struck out 12 A’s over 5 IP. It was one of King's best outings of the year, as he generated an eye-popping 19 swinging strikes, which included 15 swing-and-misses combined on his changeup and sweeper combo. King finished the night with an elite called and swinging strike (CSW) rate of 39%. King hasn't given up more than three runs in any of his last five starts, posting a 2.20 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 34/8 K/BB in 28.2 IP over that run.

Aaron Nola (RHP - PHI) has been on our radar as a fade target, as he has not been himself this season. While we regret missing him in his last turn, a loss to the Red Sox in which he gave up eight runs on 11 hits and two walks with two strikeouts over 3.2 innings, we are not going to pass up another opportunity in which Nola and the overachieving Phillies are overpriced. The biggest red flags around Nola are the dip in his strikeout rate as well as his swing-and-miss rate, which has led to his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) plunging to its lowest since his rookie season. In 2022, Nola’s WAR was at an All-Star level of 6.3, while last year it dipped to 3.9, still very good, but here in 2024, it’s 1.3, which is nearing replacement-level territory. However, the market has not adjusted to this reality, which is an inefficiency we hope to take advantage of.


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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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Our Pick

San Diego +123 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.46)

Cincinnati -1½ +114 over Miami
Washington +130 over Milwaukee