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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Detroit over Houston

4:10 PM EST. We have been fading Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) for years, and today presents another opportunity in which we are taking back tremendous value while also backing the superior starting pitcher.

We’ll start with the Tigers’ Jack Flaherty (RHP - DET) because he deserves it, as he’s having a tremendous season, even if the win/loss record is not on the positive side (3-4). Flaherty has been one of the best in the game all season, posting 94 Ks to just 10 BBs in 72.2 IP across a dozen starts. His xERA is 2.10, which is better than his surface number of 3.22, and he’s missing bats at an elite clip with a swing-and-miss rate of 14.7% while also posting an elite called and swinging strike (CSW) rate of 34.1%.

Then there is Verlander, who is coming off another ho-hum start against a weak Angels lineup in which he gave up four runs on seven hits while striking out just three over 5 IP. It was the second straight start Verlander gave up seven hits, and he didn’t miss many Halo bats with just a 2.9% swinging strike rate in that game. On the season, Verlander's swing-and-miss rate is at a decade-low of 9.6%, as is his CSW of 25.9%. Verlander’s ERA is 3.95, but his xERA is a bloated 4.96, and he’s sporting a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of just 0.2, by far his career low. Verlander has been on the decline for years, but he is still given the respect of an All-Star and a future Hall of Famer. That reputation has him overpriced, and we’re not going to miss a chance to fade him again.

Sherwood

Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.

For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

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