Detroit @ Houston
Detroit +101 over Houston

Pinnacle +101 BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105 888Sport -105

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Detroit over Houston

4:10 PM EST. We have been fading Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) for years, and today presents another opportunity in which we are taking back tremendous value while also backing the superior starting pitcher.

We’ll start with the Tigers’ Jack Flaherty (RHP - DET) because he deserves it, as he’s having a tremendous season, even if the win/loss record is not on the positive side (3-4). Flaherty has been one of the best in the game all season, posting 94 Ks to just 10 BBs in 72.2 IP across a dozen starts. His xERA is 2.10, which is better than his surface number of 3.22, and he’s missing bats at an elite clip with a swing-and-miss rate of 14.7% while also posting an elite called and swinging strike (CSW) rate of 34.1%.

Then there is Verlander, who is coming off another ho-hum start against a weak Angels lineup in which he gave up four runs on seven hits while striking out just three over 5 IP. It was the second straight start Verlander gave up seven hits, and he didn’t miss many Halo bats with just a 2.9% swinging strike rate in that game. On the season, Verlander's swing-and-miss rate is at a decade-low of 9.6%, as is his CSW of 25.9%. Verlander’s ERA is 3.95, but his xERA is a bloated 4.96, and he’s sporting a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of just 0.2, by far his career low. Verlander has been on the decline for years, but he is still given the respect of an All-Star and a future Hall of Famer. That reputation has him overpriced, and we’re not going to miss a chance to fade him again.


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For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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Our Pick

Detroit +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)

Cincinnati -1½ +114 over Miami
Washington +130 over Milwaukee