Houston @ San Francisco
Houston +107 over San Francisco

Pinnacle +107 BET365  +100 Sportsinteraction +100 888Sport +100

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Houston over San Francisco

3:45 PM EST. Logan Webb has pedigree, and he has a very sporty-looking 2.92 ERA, but underneath that, he has not been at his best in 2024. Most notably, his xERA is 4.61, which suggests that there could be a correction coming to that surface number. Webb’s strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his swing-and-miss rate is at a career-low 7.5%. Most notably, his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was a career-best 4.9 in 2023 (it’s been in the 4s the last three seasons) but is now at 2.1. A WAR of 4 or higher is All-Star caliber territory, while the 2s would make Webb a “solid starter.” There is nothing wrong with “solid,” but Webb is still priced like an “ace.”

On the Astros side, they’ll turn to Framber Valdez (LHP - HOU), who presents us with some great value as an underdog this afternoon. Valdez struck out eight Angels in a complete game win in which he gave up just one run. That night of four-hit ball was Valdez’s seventh career complete game, and his first of 2024, where he has been solid with a 1.15 WHIP through 63.2 IP. We’ll note that Valdez brings an eye-popping 63.9% groundball rate. Win, lose, or draw, the Astros are the value play here as an underdog.


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Arizona     -150

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Our Pick

Houston+107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

Cincinnati -1½ +114 over Miami
Washington +130 over Milwaukee