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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Chicago over Seattle

9:40 PM EST. Seattle has a mere run differential of +7. That puts them on the same level as Cincinnati, Boston and Detroit for example. Point is, the M’s with Bryce Miller (RHP - SEA) starting might just be the most overvalued combo of the day.

Miller went 8-7 with a 4.32 ERA in 131 for the M’s last season. He was called up in May and gave up 4 total earned runs in first 5 starts, but posted a 5.31 ERA from there on. This year, he is 5-5 with a 3,81 ERA but a 4.54 xERA over his last five starts. Miller’s fastball-heavy approach yields a ton of strikes, but also a good helping of fly-balls and an average number of K’s. Dude needs to find a reliable out-pitch to warrant being priced in this range and right now he doesn’t have one.

We’re always on the lookout for underpriced or under the radar starters and Jonathan Cannon (RHP - CHW) fits the bill. Cannon was a high-profile 2021 draft prospect who missed a big chunk of that season with mononucleosis and, after a prolonged period of minimal activity to fight it off, wasn’t quite himself when he initially returned. His velocity fell, as did his draft stock, and Cannon went back to school to rebound. It worked. He had a very efficient 2022 season in terms of strike-throwing and ended up becoming Chicago’s third rounder, signing for just shy of a million bucks.

Cannon spent 2023 split between High- and Double-A and continued to throw a ton of strikes with heavy, sink-oriented stuff. He mixes four- and two-seamers at mostly 94-95 mph, and can climb the ladder when he wants. Aside from his rarely used changeup, all of Cannon’s secondary pitches have glove-side movement. His mix is super tough on righties, but he needs to sharpen his backfoot breaking ball consistency to have a platoon-neutralizing weapon. Even at his size (6’6”) Cannon’s delivery is consistent and repeatable. He’s remade his body almost entirely since early in college and looks more lean and athletic than ever before. He possesses repertoire depth and command.

Cannon has 17 K’s in 16 innings over his three starts. He has walked just four batters so his ratios are very good. The market sees his 5,.94 xERA, which is due to unlucky margins, most notably, a ridiculous unlucky 41% hit rate and also a low strand rate of 64%. Cannon can pitch and he’s only going to get better so buy now when few know just how high his prospect ceiling is. Big overlay.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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