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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Colorado over Minnesota

7:40 PM EST. Cal Quantrill (RHP - COL) is not our target here, but we’ll note that he’s coming off a three-hit effort that produced five scoreless innings versus the Cardinals, which has a home start at Coors Field. It’s also worth noting that since arriving in Denver, Quantrill has seen both his swing-and-miss rate and first-pitch strike rate increase to their best in three seasons. Perhaps the most surprising is that despite pitching in Coors, Quantrill has seen a near 6% uptick in his groundball rate, which now sits at a career-best 46.6%.

The Twins kept the Rockies off the scoreboard yesterday, but to expect the same from Louie Varland (RHP - MIN) might be what they call “a little spendy” in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, as the 26-year-old is getting the spot start today after getting the call-up from Triple-A St. Paul. This is not Varland’s first kick at the SP can, as he did get four starts in April, but he was brutalized by hard and medium contact, posting just a 5.2% soft hit rate.

In those 16.2 big league innings, Varland posted an ugly ERA of 9.18 with an xERA that is just as ugly at 8.09. Sure, Varland struck out 18 batters, but he also walked 9 for an 18:9 BB ratio. Those K’s are not likely to stay in the 9.72 K/9 range either, as his swing-and-miss rate is a puny 7.6%. Since getting sent down after his first look in the Twins rotation this season, Varland has struggled in the minors, posting a 5.31 ERA and a bloated WHIP of 1.45. In short, dude cannot be better than a 2-1 favorite today, and we are not going to pass up the extreme value on offer here.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Detroit    +134

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