Posted at 1:55 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +105  BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction +101  888Sport +100

NY Mets +105 over Miami

6:40 PM EST. Ask any pro athlete what the next best thing to making the playoffs is or fighting to make the playoffs is and almost all of them will answer, “Preventing a another team from making the playoffs”. We mention that because the Mets are out and the Marlins are fighting to get in. In other words, motivation for the Mets figures to be high, especially after New York outhit the Marlins yesterday 11-8 and lost 2-1. That’s bad luck (getting 11 hits and scoring once).

Kodai Senga (RHP - NY Mets) struggled to keep the ball over the plate in the first half of 2023 (40% Ball% in 1H). He has made some nice gains in that area in the second half (34% Ball% in 2H). He hasn't lost any of his strikeout intrigue in the process (28% to 30% K%). Further, Senga has added two points to his swinging strike rate (12.1% to 14.0%) and his 2.86 xERA since July 1 confirms that his gains in the second half have been legit. Senga is well acclimated to his new surroundings and has gotten progressively better with each passing month. Frankly, he’s been outstanding for weeks and that was no different in his last start, where he threw six shutout innings while striking out 10 versus the DBacks. As a dog here, he and the Mets are a great value bet.

Eury Pérez (RHP - MIA) returned to the Marlins after a month in the minors, and it has been a roller coaster ride. He has a 4.11 ERA and 4.32 xERA over his seven starts since his return. Perez has allowed 16 earned runs over 35 innings pitched while striking out 45 for a 23.6% K-BB. Perez is 20-years old. He’s good but he’s green and the pressure of performing well while worrying about getting sent down again makes him risky. After a taste of the big-leagues, every young starter fears being sent back down. This precocious prospect jumped to Double-A after just 78 professional innings so his rollercoaster ride is taking a toll. He owns size, velocity, command and he’ll be somebody. But right now he’s a dart throw not worth the risk when he’s favored.

Sherwood

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