Washington @ Pittsburgh
Washington +129 over Pittsburgh

Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +129 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +126 888Sport +125

Washington +129 over Pittsburgh

6:35 PM EST. Bailey Falter (LHP - PIT) comes in with a 4.65/4.73 ERA/xERA split after 15 appearances (11 starts) covering 72 innings. Dude throws strikes but that’s about all he does well, as his hard hit ball rate is high, his strikeouts are low (54 in 72 IP) and his swing and miss rate is also low at 8%. There's two usable pitches in his profile in his 92-mph fastball with excellent extension and deception and a plus changeup that he'll throw in either count to both righties and lefties. Still, two-pitch pitchers usually don’t fare too well at this level and Falter is no exception. He’s been riding the shuttle from the minors to the majors for three years and it’s not like Pittsburgh’s rotation is hard to crack. Falter and the Pirates do not warrant this price against a Washington team that hits lefties very well.

Joan Adon (RHP - WAS) spent his first two pro seasons in the bullpen before Washington moved him into the rotation in 2019 and his velocity dipped a bit as you might expect. He’s continued on to the big leagues playing a need-based starter. He’s appeared in just eight games this year (six as a starter) and his surface numbers aren’t pretty, which is why we get him and the Nats at such a good price.

Adon turned heads years ago after touching 100-mph out of the bullpen for Washington but he’s progressed slowly. He’s sitting 95 mph and is up to 98 as a starter, and his low-80s slider is a groundball-inducing pitch, thus, it’s more than just a bat-misser. Adon has a graceful delivery that he struggles to repeat, which impacts his breaking ball quality and command. The Nationals altered his arm angle and he’s been a little less walk-prone over the last month or so, perhaps because he’s getting a feel for his new mechanics. This kid has talent and he’s close so keep an eye on him. Adon allowed two runs on six hits and three walks while striking out six batters over five innings in a no-decision against the Mets last Wednesday. He’s not taking a step up in class here. The Nats have to be considered a live pooch today.

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Our Pick

Washington +129 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.58)

Cincinnati -1½ +114 over Miami
Washington +130 over Milwaukee