Posted at 12:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +118   BET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +115 888Sport +115

Cleveland +118 over Minnesota

6:10 PM EST. It was just a week ago that we played Cleveland to beat Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIN) and the Twins and we see no reason not to come right back on Cleveland again. Cleveland did win that game after belting out 11 hits and here’s what we had to say about Lopez:

“Lopez might also be running a little low on fuel. A Chronic shoulder issue stayed at bay for a career-high 32 starts last year. He suffered 3 of his 4 duds (6+ ER) in the 2nd half when lefties did a lot of the damage. He’s already made 26 starts this year (27 now) covering 165 innings. He can be very good but we have to wonder if he’s laboring a bit or if the shoulder is taking on a bit too much”.

In that aforementioned start, Lopez allowed eight hits in six frames, walked three and gave up just three runs. He’s lucky it wasn't closer to eight runs.

Now, after an exhilarating weekend series in Texas, the Twins will fly to Cleveland for an important two-game set. With a five-game lead atop the AL Central over the Guardians, Minnesota could put Cleveland out of its misery with a sweep but we’re betting that’s not going to happen.

A month ago, the Guardians were sellers but things change fast around this league, especially when the talent’s being offered for nothing more than money, Cleveland Guardians claimed RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Reynaldo López, and LHP Matt Moore off the waiver wire. It probably won’t move the needle in Cleveland. Five games is a substantial cushion over a month, and if the Twins blow the lead it’ll reflect at least as poorly on them as the Guardians. Really, what’s most interesting here is seeing Cleveland leap on talent simply and obviously because it’s freely available—given that these pickups are functionally extremely short-term free agents. Oh, Cleveland also gets 1B Josh Naylor back after being on the IL for a month.

All year we’ve suggested that the Indians have grossly underachieved. They have still struck out the least amount of times in the league while Minnesota has struck out the most. Furthermore, Lucas Giolito (RHP - CLE) is set to make his Guardians debut after six horrendous starts as a member of the Angels. He has already made three starts versus the Twins this season, allowing just two earned runs with a 23/8 K/BB split across 18 innings. Giolito has had great success at Cleveland’s Progressive Field, thus should be happy to call Progressive Field home. In six career starts there he is 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 38 innings. If Cleveland wins here, the lead will be down to 4 and that’s a massive difference from six. It’ll be all hands on deck and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Guardians are winning games frequently these days. Wrong side favored.

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