Posted at 1:05 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +115 BET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +115 888Sport +115

San Francisco +115 over San Diego

9:40 PM EST. The Padres are playing like they couldn’t care less while the Giants are hitting, winning and playing well. That’s not a bad start when taking back a tag. San Francisco has won four of five while scoring 27 runs over that span. The Padres have lost six of seven while allowing 40 runs over that span. San Diego’s bullpen is gassed.

The Giants are going with a bullpen game. Tristen Beck (RHP - SF) will start and pitch perhaps three or four frames and then he’ll be lifted. Dude has appeared in 29 games this year with just one start but that start was the last game in which he threw 4.1 innings and didn’t look out of place one bit. He was projected as a backend starter but was deployed as a long reliever throughout his rookie year and he even has two saves this year. He may be stretched out a bit more but regardless, he’s very capable of a strong outing with his 3.52/3.77 ERA/xERA split.

With a move to San Diego in the offseason, Michael Wacha (RHP, SD) has seen his results improve, as he has A 2.84 ERA through 18 starts. He’s also 10-2. Thus, with a 10-2 record and a 2.84 ERA why the f**k is San Diego priced so low at home (-130 to -135) with Wacha starting? The answer is that Michael Wacha’s huge success this year is more fluke than skills.

Throwing the change-up with a 32% usage% is helping Wacha create swings-and-misses, as the pitch has a 19.5% swing and miss rate (SwK%). However, it is the only pitch in his arsenal with a double-digit SwK, and the curveball's 8.6% SwK is his second highest SwK. He has a 10.4% career SwK with a 21% career K%. He has also lost a tick of velocity on his four-seam fastball. With a 13% career HR/F and some fortune, his xERA of 4.49 points to expected regression. Wacha’s xERA since returning from the IL (three games) is 5.54 and that’s after 15.2 frames. Michael Wacha has been extremely lucky this year and it is not sustainable. He’s a below average starter with ace-like surface stats and it’s about to blow up. We’ll put that to the test here with this very live underdog.

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