Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.
Tarik Skubal +200 to Record the Win
1:10 PM EST. The Tigers are a cheap price today (-115 or thereabouts) with Takik Skubal (LHP - DET) on the hill so if you’re more inclined, there is great value on that wager too. However, if the Tigers are in a position to win this one, it’ll likely be Skubal in line for the victory. The price on him to get the W is outstanding because he’s an outstanding starter with Cy Young potential in his future -- maybe even next year.
Skubal had a couple of rough starts during his return back from the injured list in July, which gave him a marginal 4.57 ERA in 21 innings that month. However, Skubal posted the best skills of any starting pitcher in the AL since: 32% K%, 4% BB%, 29% K-BB%, 54% grounders. He's showing multiple whiff pitches and is getting tons of strikes, both early (67% first-pitch strike rate) and often (29% Ball%). Skubal will carry some real full-season breakout appeal in 2024 and is a great bet to have a big finish as he builds up the durability to work deeper into games.
The Tigers are not an easy out either. Austin Meadows’ brother, Parker went 1-for-5 in his MLB debut on Monday night against the Cubs. Meadows is arriving at a Tigers’ clubhouse that’s had sneaky good vibes in the last few weeks. Spencer Torkelson is raking. So is Kerry Carpenter. The Tigers are competitive, if not out of the gutter altogether, and they appear dedicated to building their next contender through a youth movement. Torkelson, Carpenter, and Riley Greene will be a part of it, and Meadows has a chance to round out the outfield of the future at Comerica Park. Skubal is a big part of it too.
When we wager on a starter to get the W, we still want the opposing pitcher to be weak so we have a lead when our starter leaves. Jameson Taillon (RHP - CHC) fits the bill. Taillon is getting progressively worse as the season wears on. His home skills are weak and his road skills are weaker (5.56 xERA away from Wrigley). Batters are feasting on his four-seam fastball with a .618 SLG/.698 xSLG and .431 wOBA/.479 xwOBA. There is some strand rate misfortune here but overall, Taillon’s skills are in a steep decline. Taillon’s walks have increased too. His cutter has a 37% Ball%, and his four-seam fastball has a 40% Ball%. Even though there is some bad fortune here, Taillon's below-average skills (5.22 xERA, 6.17 xERA over his last five starts) claim it's not all bad luck. Now he’s almost evenly priced against one the best starters in the game. Yeah, Detroit is a very good wager at -115, as they probably should be in the -145 range but if they do indeed win, chances are great that it’ll be Skubal picking up the “W”.
Tarik Skubal +200 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.00)