Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +106  BET365 +100 Sportsinteraction +100 888Sport +101

Toronto +100 over Baltimore

7:05 PM EST. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP - TOR) is coming off back to back gems (at Cleveland, home to Philly) and he has authored a 1.24 ERA/3.10 xERA over his last six starts. Over that stretch, he has excelled in limiting hard contact but there is so much more to this wager than getting behind Kikuchi. 

Living in Canada and having exclusive coverage on the Jays every day, like a lot of you, we, too, are well aware of the narrative surrounding the Blue Jays ineptitude in their own division. In any discussion about the Blue Jays this year, surely someone will bring that up. Yeah, we get it, Toronto has been horrible against the AL East but it’s not a thing. Instead, it’s an unlucky trend that means jack. Single game results in baseball are highly luck driven and Toronto’s luck against the AL East has been horrible. A correction to the good is coming and it couldn’t come at a better time than right now. 

Toronto’s wOBA against the AL East is .327, which is the highest of any team in the AL East. We could go on and on about how good Toronto’s offensive numbers are against the AL East with the exception of BABIP with runners in scoring position, which is purely a luck driven stat. Toronto has not cashed in the numerous baserunners that they’ve had against the AL East and that’s the only reason that its record within the division is so poor. Overall, Toronto’s offensive stats and pitching stats rank so much higher than Baltimore’s in just about every key category. In terms of value, this is as good as it gets, as the Jays should be favored but they’re not.

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP - BAL) is flashing his upside away from Camden Yards. His road skills have been some of the best in the game among starters with 30+ IP in that scenario: 30% K%, 7% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 49% grounders and an xERA of 3.87. His surface stats implode during his home starts (6.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) due in large part to shaky skills. Bottom line is that Rodriguez has been lucky on the road and unlucky at home but somewhere in between those surface stats is a mediocre pitcher that is worth watching (his minor league pedigree was outstanding, but as the chalk against the Blue Jays, we’ll wait for another day to get behind G-Rod. When Toronto is an underdog in this series, we’ll be on them each time and make no exception here.  

Sherwood

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