Posted at 1:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +136 BET365 +135 Sportsinteraction +132 888Sport +130

Boston +136 over Tampa Bay

4:05 PM EST. We are not going to debate the high quality of the Rays or their starting pitcher today, Shane McClanahan (LHP - TB), as their records speak for themselves. That said, this is such a huge overly that we cannot help but point out that while McClanahan is having a solid season, he is not as good as his surface numbers suggest. The dude has been very lucky with regard to putting runners on base, as his strand rate is 91.2%, which is about 20% higher than average. Additionally, his xERA is at 3.59, which is fine but not nearly as sparkling as the 2.07 you'll see printed beside his name in the box score. Finally, McClanahan was an elite groundball pitcher last season, but that is not the case here in 2023, as his groundball rate is down 8.1% to a more pedestrian 42.1%. Again, not bad, but not elite.

Brayan Bello (RHP - BOS) will go for the Red Sox tonight in his ninth turn of the season. Bello has pitched 39.1 innings across those starts, racking up 41 strikeouts. Bello is 2-2, and is very much "what you see is what you get," as his surface ERA of 3.89 is just a notch higher than his xERA of 3.63. What is most interesting about Bello is that he is not only able to miss bats with a serviceable 11.2% swing-and-miss rate, but he also sports extremely elite groundball tendencies. This season, Bello's groundball rate is near 60% (59.7%), which is not a fluke. He posted an elite 55.7% across 57.1 big league innings last season. In short, there is a lot to like here, and the price is very right.

Finnie

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