Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +111 BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +111 888Sport +110

Cleveland +111 over Minnesota

8:10 PM EST. Perhaps the best value play on the board tonight, as Cleveland’s bats have come alive with 23 runs scored over its past three games, Truth be told, Cleveland’s bats have been lively all year (they have struck out the least amount of times in the entire league) but all those balls in play weren’t landing anywhere but in someone’s glove. Now those balls in play are finding holes. The Guardians figure to put the ball in play again here against Bailey Ober (RHP - MIN).

Ober has outstanding surface numbers (2.68 ERA in 40 innings). There are plenty of positives to take away from his seven starts thus far, which include his strong K/BB split of 37/11. He's a command artist that throws in the low 90’s but his xERA is 4.39. Historically, Ober puts up consistent numbers but his sample size is small (only 38 games started over his brief career). He’s good but he’ll never be more than a mid-rotation arm.

The main target for this wager is Cleveland’s under the radar starter. Aaron Civale (RHP - CLE) has only made two starts this year due to a left oblique strain, but he’s been activated and he’s ready to go. Arm, wrist, and glute injuries led to three interruptions of his roller-coaster season last year. Civale got racked around the yard in the first half; then normalization of both skills and luck factors drove a strong finish. That second half of last year and first two starts this year is our focus because those skills gains are highlighted by a new pitch mix that leans on a cutter/curve combo that has yielded swing and miss % and groundball gains. In his two starts, Civale has walked just two batters over 13 innings while striking out eight. It’s not elite but his command is and that makes he and the Guardians playable here taking back a price.

Sherwood

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