Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +147 BET365 +155 Sportsinteraction +150 888Sport +145

Cincinnati +155 over Boston

7:10 PM EST. Luke Weaver (RHP - CIN) is giving the Reds quality innings this year with a BB/K split of 9/37 over 38 frames to go along with his 4.07 xERA. Weaver was a bit of a wild card coming into the year. He’s still just 29 years old, but pitched mainly in relief in 2022 with disastrous results (6.56 ERA/1.82 WHIP) in just 36 IP. As throughout his career, he battled injury (elbow troubles in 2022). However, he’s been able to stay on the mound and pitch at a league-average level. His skills history have not been bad and in what looks to us like a 50/50 proposition, we must play the value.

James Paxton (LHP - BOS) was excellent in his first two starts off the IL, but he returned to reality in his last start versus the Angels, where he threw three innings and allowed five runs. That comes after he was unable to answer the bell after April 2021 Tommy John surgery followed by a torn lat in August of last year that wiped out 2022. Paxton has logged 400+ IL days and tossed just 21 IP since then. When looking at his three starts this year, we see an alarming groundball/fly-ball rate of 21%/51% with a line drive rate of 38%. If he’s not striking out guys, he’s getting hit hard and that bodes well for Cincinnati here, as the Reds are only striking out 16% of the time versus LHP over the last two weeks with a .364 batting average. Big overlay.

Sherwood

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