San Diego @ Miami
Miami +106 over San Diego

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +106 BET365 +100 Sportsinteraction +101 888Sport +100

Miami +106 over San Diego

6:40 PM EST. Blake Snell (LHP - SD) is in decline. His swing and miss rate is at a career low of 11%. His walks issued are becoming a major-league problem, as he has walked 31 batters in 50 innings. In his last start, Snell walked four batters in five innings. Groin tightness delayed the start of his season until mid-May a year ago and kept him from finding a groove until the 2nd half. We have to wonder if he’s laboring right now due to much discomfort. His recent injury history makes Snell way too risky to pay favorite prices and then pray that the health gods look favorably upon him. His WHIP of 1.56 says some Marlins will be on base today with a chance to steal and score. Furthermore, Miami ranks 4th in the entire league in OPS v lefties. Blake Snell is not very good anymore and his xERA of 4.90 confirms it.

Braxton Garrett has been solid in his last four starts since being hung out to dry in a May 3 start. Garrett has a 2.91 ERA, 3.13 xERA, and 21.8% K-BB over the last four starts but all of that is hidden under the hood. That allows us to get Garrett and the Marlins at a discount. On the surface, Braxton Garrett has put up an ugly 6.86 ERA and 1.43 WHIP during May, but those marks have been driven by a 37% hit rate and 56% strand rate. That’s on the extreme side of bad luck. His skills in May have been fantastic and his aggregate skills are also fantastic with 28 K’s against just eight walks over his last 26 frames. Buy low candidates do not get much better than this and we’re on it.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Miami +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110