Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +111 BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +108 888Sport +105

Detroit +111 over Texas

6:40 PM EST. Pitching for the first place Rangers (34-19), Martin Perez (LHP - TEX) and his 6-1 record with an ERA of 3.83 is a mere -120 favorite over Alex Faedo (RHP - DET) and the Tigers. We now have to question why oddsmakers made the Rangers such an appealing favorite today. Incidentally, Alex Faedo has started 16 games in his brief career and has two lousy wins. Last year he went 1-5 with a 5.25 ERA and this year, he’s only made four starts and has one victory. It gets even better, as Texas took the opener here last night, 5-0 and has now won nine of 11 while scoring 68 runs(!) over that 11 game stretch. Texas has scored more runs than any team in the majors, they’re hot as hell and yet oddsmakers made them a tiny favorite here. If this game (price) doesn’t scream beware, then we have no idea what we’re doing with our lives.

As for Martin Perez, well, the veteran has reestablished his sinker-first repertoire. His increased change-up usage is also helping to slash his HR damage (6 jacks allowed in 10 starts) but we’re not buying. First, his poor swing and miss rate and K’s are entrenched, his control is inconsistent and his fortunes are too often hit-rate dependent, and he’s usually pitching with traffic. He allowed three jacks in one game to Oakland and two jacks in another game to the Astronauts. In his last start, Perez had a good pitching line on paper (2,57 ERA) but he struck out a putrid three batters in seven frames. Every hard hit ball was right at someone. Martin Perez’s success is highly luck driven and oddsmakers know it, thus the enticing short price on the Rangers here.

We’ll now turn our attention to Alex Faedo, who is the second part of this equation. Faedo was the 18th overall pick in the 2017 draft and essentially missed all of 2020-2021 with an elbow injury that ultimately required January 2021 Tommy John surgery. He subsequently logged one quality start in 12 starts in his return, backed by below-average BB%, K%, and swing and miss rate before undergoing season-ending hip surgery, which brings us to this year where Faedo has an outstanding 22 K’s in 22 frames with just one walk issued. His xERA of 3.06 is better than Zac Gallen’s xERA and better than Joe Ryan too, who are both considered to be (and are) the ace of their respective team. Alex Faedo is dealing it (swing and miss rate in his last two games was an off the charts 19%) and he’s getting better with each passing start. Fantasy players in keeper leagues or otherwise, take note and grab him ASAP. As for bettors, do the same.

Sherwood

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