Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +121 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +122 888Sport +120

Cleveland +125 over Baltimore

1:05 PM EST. Tyler Wells (RHP - BAL) has put together a strong start to the season, especially at home. In his five home starts he is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 33 K in 31 IP. The Guardians have struggled offensively in May with a .605 OPS, which is worst in MLB. In his young career. Wells is holding left-handed batters to a .185 BA and .553 OPS. That’s nice, it really is but since we’re not buying it because the numbers do not support Wells’ magic. Wells is 28 years old and is a decent control pitcher supported by marginal skills, His success is driven by a fortunate strand rate of 87.8% and an absolutely incredibly lucky .167 BABIP. The correction to his very misleading surface stats will come calling.

We mentioned this last week and it’s worth reiterating that Cleveland’s poor hitting stats (on paper) doesn’t reveal the Guardians have struck out the least amount of times in the entire league. Point being, putting the ball in play and having the lowest OPS in the league does not correlate. The Guardians offensive rankings are going to shoot up the rankings very soon and we’ll put that to the test here again.

Logan Allen (LHP - CLE) made his major league debut on April 23 against the Marlins. Allen was sensational in his first three starts in Triple-A in 2023 before being promoted and hasn’t looked a bit out of place at this level. Selected in the 2nd round in the 2020 draft, Allen has exceeded expectations in minimal time, particularly in 2021 and the first half of 2022. He may not have a dominant offering, but he has four pitches at his disposal and generally commands the plate well. He’s able to spot his 90-94 mph fastball well and get late movement to keep hitters off guard. Allen’s best pitch may be his low-80s change-up that features outstanding sinking action and is tough against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He completes his arsenal with a slider and cutter. In 33 innings at this level covering six starts, he has an elite BB/K rate of 9/33 with a strong groundball lean. In what is a 50/50 proposition and maybe even a slight edge to Cleveland. We’ll roll the dice here in this solid value play.

Sherwood

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