Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ +167 BET365 -1½ +165 Sportsinteraction -1½ +165 888Sport -1½ +165

Houston -1½ +167 over Minnesota

4:10 PM EST. J.P. France (RHP - HOU) was signed by the Astros in the 14th round of the 2018 draft and has slowly worked his way up to making his major league debut. 6'0" and 216 pounds, France is an adequate starter and throws five pitches. He makes it work based on his deception on the mound. France’s fastball sits in the low-90s. He also keeps batters on their toes as he will throw any pitch in any count. The 28-year-old right-hander posted a 2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 26/11 K/BB ratio over three starts (five appearances) for Triple-A Sugar Land this year and in four starts for the Astronauts covering 21 innings, he has walked just five batters while striking out 18. The Twins have never seen him, which is also a plus for us but this wager is more about fading Sonny Gray (RHP - MIN).

After 10 starts, Sonny Gray finds himself in the improbable situation of having the best ERA in the majors among qualified starters. Obviously, no one expects Gray to continue with a sub-2.00 ERA, but his skills do not support a breakout for this 33-year-old pitcher? His league-leading ERA is not supported by an improvement in skills. His xERA of 3.60 is a much better reflection of his skills. His 86% strand rate is a primary reason for the microscopic ERA, but it is not sustainable. In Gray’s last start, his swing and miss rate was just 7%. That’s interesting because trips to the IL (hammy, pec, hammy) are now becoming an annual tradition. We have to wonder if something was aggravated. Dude has exceeded 135 IP just once in the past five years. Gray is good but he’s not close to being this good. His recent steady skills foundation is showing some cracks, with fastball velocity, swing and miss rate, and groundball rate all trending in the wrong direction. None are foreboding enough to warrant panic, but at 33, it's a trend worth monitoring and with that sub 2.00 ERA he’s a great sell-high candidate. Astronauts by two or more is the call.

Sherwood

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