Miami @ San Francisco
Miami +115 over San Francisco

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +115 BET365 +105 Sportsinteraction +109 888Sport +105

Miami +115 over San Francisco

4:05 PM EST. The Giants are three games under .500 with a run differential of -20 and they’re an average 5-5 over their past 10 games. In other words, there are better favorites to get behind than this one, especially with Alex Wood (LHP - SF) starting. Wood is a decent pitcher but dude hasn’t pitched at full health since 2015. He's missed time every year including time this year with a shoulder impingement He’s made five appearances (four starts) and has thrown just 16 frames. In said 16 innings, Wood has struck out 16 and walked eight. His shiny ERA of 2.87 is hiding his xERA of 4.79, which is one of the reasons we get the Marlins at a price here. Alex Wood is very unlikely to go past four innings here because he’s injured or not very durable these days. His 1.47 WHIP in no way supports his surface ERA, thus major regression is about to hit that ERA.

A renewed focus on getting ahead in the count and attacking the zone has sparked some major improvements for Jesús Luzardo (LHP - MIA). He has shown the ability to miss bats at an elite level for a starting pitcher with 55 K’s and just 17 walks issued in 51 innings. His velocity has been averaging 97 mph so far in 2023. Luzardo’s strong second half last year highlighted the immense potential that prompted some reputable publications to rank him 11th overall in the Top 100 Prospects back in January 2020 and he’s answering those strong projections right now. He has an elite 17% swing and miss rate and he’s one of the majors most underappreciated starters. Buy now before the window closes.



Our Pick

Miami +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

Chicago +118 over L.A. Angels