Baltimore @ Toronto
Baltimore +122 over Toronto

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +122 BET365 +120 Sportsinteraction +118 888Sport +115

Baltimore +122 over Toronto

3:05 PM EST. Alek Manoah (RHP - TOR) likely was going to take a step backward from his 2022 breakout, but his early results have been worse than anyone could have expected (5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP in 45 innings). His bad control (16% BB%) has been fueled by a 56% first pitch strike rate and 40% Ball%. In addition, Manoah's 8.8% swing and miss rate is the lowest mark of his career and it’s getting progressively worse. Even if there's no hidden injury at play here, there are enough signs to suggest that Manoah will struggle to deliver any type of value in 2023. He has walked 32 batters and struck out 35. He walked 7 batters in his last start. He’s not throwing strikes, he’s not inducing swinging strikes and both mentally and psychologically, he’s a beaten down pitcher. He and the Jays are overpriced here to a significant degree.

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP - BAL) struggled somewhat in his first eight MLB startsm, at least on the surface (6.57 ERA, 1.73 WHIP in 37 IP). That said, his skills are really strong: 32% K%, 11% BB%, 22% K-BB%, 45% grounders with an xERA of 4.11. An unlucky 39% hit rate has been his undoing. Don't be surprised if he takes a step forward in May. Grayson Rodrigues has a BB/K split of 17/44 in his 37 frames. This elite Orioles prospect lost three months to a lat injury last year. His work upon his September return was predictably ragged, but he was rounding into form as the curtain came down on the year. Dude is ready and he’s good but his misleading ERA assures us we get him and the O’s at a steal of a price.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Baltimore +122 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)

Chicago +118 over L.A. Angels