Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Pittsburgh +152 over Baltimore

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +152 BET365 +150 Sportsinteraction +145 888Sport +145

Pittsburgh +152 over Baltimore

7:05 PM EST. Tyler Wells (RHP - BAL) is the poster boy for why we’re so adamant about playing underdogs in baseball. Guys like Gerritt Cole often warrant being priced in this range but Tyler Wells does not. Dude is just 2-1 after seven games with one, count ‘em --- one pure quality start. He has a 3.15 ERA but what that ERA doesn’t reveal is that he has a sick BABIP of .155 (league average is .290). He also has a sick strand rate of 87%. Tyler Wells is, without question, the most fortunate starter in the game. He’s a decent control pitcher that is supported by marginal skills, otherwise his success is driven by fortunate everything. His xERA of 4.94 is a much better indicator of his skills than his misleading surface ERA of 3.15.

Roansy Contreras (RHP - PIT) is an upper-tier pitching prospect who showed flashes of that upside in 2022. He had a 3.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 87 innings for the Pirates last year. Problem is, that mark wasn't backed by very good command (20% K%, 10% BB%, 11% K-BB%), which suppressed his overall skills to a dangerous level. Still, Contreras flashed a really strong 12.3% swing and miss rate, which gives his strikeout rate more upside. Contreras has struck out 26 batters over his last 29 frames with a 3.72/4.12 ERA/xERA split. His strikeouts are trending up and so is his first pitch strike rate. Improved command will go a long way in making him very effective, thus, he carries more short-term intrigue than his surface skills suggest. It could all come together very quickly for Contreras and we’ll put that to the test here.



Our Pick

Pittsburgh +152 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.04)

Chicago +118 over L.A. Angels