Milwaukee @ Colorado
Colorado -1½ +215 over Milwaukee

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -1½ +217 BET365 -1½ +215 Sportsinteraction N/A 888Sport -1½ +215

Colorado -1½ +215 over Milwaukee

3:10 PM EST. We are going to continue to fade Wade Miley (LHP - MIL) until we cannot fade him anymore, as the veteran lefty is showing some major cracks here in 2023. Through five starts, across 29 innings, Miley sports a tidy-looking ERA of 1.86, but that surface number is smoke and mirrors with an inflated xERA of 4.79, which is a far more accurate reflection of his quality or lack thereof. Miley has only struck out 19 batters in those 29 innings, while his swing & miss rate is down to a career-low 7.8%, with his first-pitch strike rate also at a career low of 48%. Miley has gone at least five innings in each of his starts, but he has only exceeded three total strikeouts once. This an extremely weak starting pitcher, whose luck is off the charts so far. Major regression is coming, so now is the time to fade.

Connor Seabold (RHP - COL) will come out of the bullpen for this start, as the Rockies are dealing with the season-ending injury to German Marquez, who will undergo Tommy John surgery. The Rockies picked up Seabold from the Red Sox in the offseason, where he did make five starts last season. In those starts, Seabold posted 19 strikeouts in 18.1 innings. He also had a most unlucky Batting Average of Balls in Play of .476 and a strand rate of 56.4% in 2022. In his 13.2 innings this season, Seabold has 13 strikeouts to just three walks. We don't know how long Seabold will last today, but there is a spot open in the rotation that is his for the taking. Seabold has been a starter his entire career and Rockies are going to give him a long leash in this more familiar role.



Our Pick

Colorado -1½ +215 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.30)

Chicago +118 over L.A. Angels