Cincinnati @ San Diego
Cincinnati +178 over San Diego

Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +178 BET365 +175 Sportsinteraction +170 888Sport +170

Cincinnati +178 over San Diego

9:40 PM EST. Michael Wacha (RHP - SD) is a known commodity, but when priced in this range, he is a risky favorite. Through five starts and 25.1 innings this season, Wacha sports an inflated ERA of 6.75, which is just a notch higher than his inflated xERA of 6.51. As for why Wacha is struggling so much this season, one only has to look at his groundball rate, which was a respectable 41% last season, dropping to just 31.3% here in 2023. Moreover, Wacha’s WHIP is a bloated 1.53, which when you look up on the WHIP scale simply grades as "bad". A "bad" pitcher cannot be priced in this range.

Graham Ashcraft (RHP - CIN) continues to hover under the radar because he plays for the Reds, who had dreadfully low expectations this season. However, with low expectations comes underpriced quality pitching, which we have made our bread and butter over the years.

Back to Ashcraft, who was reinstated from the bereavement list on Sunday but did not miss a start after pitching six innings versus the Rangers last Wednesday, where Ashcraft gave up two runs on three hits and did not factor into the decision. It wasn't Ashcraft's sharpest start of the season, as he had just three strikeouts (his lowest strikeout rate of the season), but considering the circumstances, he pitched pretty darn well. Ashcraft is still going to bring the heat with his high 90s cutter and sinker, which induce an elite 56.1% groundball rate. Considering he pitches half his games in the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark, that groundball rate is even more impressive. There are few if any pitchers in the bigs that throw their breaking pitches as hard as Ashcraft. The dude is as legit as they come. We're driving the bandwagon on Ashcraft until there is a correction to his being so grossly undervalued in the market.


Our Pick

Cincinnati +178 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.56)

Chicago +118 over L.A. Angels