Seattle @ Toronto
Seattle -103 over Toronto

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -103 BET365 -110 Sportsinteraction -118 888Sport -110

Seattle -103 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. Luis Castillo (RHP - SEA) did not factor into the decision last Saturday when he allowed three runs on seven hits over five innings against the Cardinals. Castillo fanned eight Cardinal hitters across those five innings, bringing his strikeout rate to 10.31 K/9, which pairs nicely with his walk rate of 1.82 BB/9. Castillo sports a tidy xERA of 2.72 and an elite swing & miss rate of 15.3%, which is in line with his best days in Cincinnati.

Alek Manoah (RHP - TOR) has always been a big guy, but coming into the season, he looks like he put on another 20 or 30 pounds, which may be one of the reasons he appears to be laboring out on the mound thus far. Through 26.1 innings this season, across five starts, Manoah has seen his walk rate more than double compared to last year, with that inflated number being 5.47 BB/9 here in 2023. Manoah's xERA is also an inflated 6.99. In his last turn on Saturday, Manoah had his best start of the season against the Yankees, throwing seven shutout innings, but that performance was the exception and not the norm so far. If we remove that start in New York, Manoah's walk rate is an even more inflated 6.98 BB/9.

The Blue Jays play with the weight of a nation on their shoulders, and that nation is now a wagering nation. With sports betting becoming legal and more accessible in Ontario and other provinces over the last year, the Blue Jays get a ton of attention from the Canadian market (just look at the price at Canadian book SIA, where the Blue Jays get pounded by the Canadian market every day). It's with that in mind that we find this game sticking out from the rest of the pack. How can the Blue Jays, who are winning big, scoring runs in bunches, and are a very popular team in this market, be nary a coin flip today? Could the oddsmakers not have increased that price and not swayed a bet? That stance speaks volumes, and we are listening. We can't predict what is going to happen in this game, but the Mariners are the play.

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Our Pick

Seattle -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

Chicago +118 over L.A. Angels