Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -1½ +107 BET365 -1½ +105 Sportsinteraction -1½ +111 888Sport -1½ +105

L.A. Dodgers -1½ +111 over Pittsburgh

12:35 PM EST. Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) picked up his second win of the season last Friday, bringing his record to 2-0. Over 29.2 innings pitched, Keller has a strikeout rate of 9.10 K/9, but it's not all sunshine and rainbows, as he sports a bloated 3.34 BB/9 walk rate and a 39.8% groundball rate. Moreover, Keller's xERA is 4.17, and his strand rate is a very pitcher friendly 80.2%. He faced Cincinnati last time out, but today he takes a big step up in competition.

On a day where there are some significantly priced favorites, this number stands out like a sore thumb. We appreciate and acknowledge that the Pirates are off to a torrid 17-8 start, while the Dodgers are a middling 13-12, but it is because of those contrasting starts that the Dodgers are grossly underpriced in this spot. L.A. got waffled 8-1 yesterday as a favorite in this range with Tony Gonsolin on the bump. How can there not be value in now backing their ace, Julio Urias (LHP - LAD)?

Like the Dodgers, on the surface, Urias has been lukewarm with a 3-2 record, but his underlying numbers point to a dude who has deserved better. The lefty sports a 10.0 K/9 strikeout rate to a 1.67 BB/9 walk rate, as well as a tidy 2.90 xERA. If this game were played a month ago, the Dodgers would have been a -200 favorite or better. This is a "buy low, sell high" situation where the favorite is short-priced, and we're all over the Dodgers on the run line.

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