Miami @ Atlanta
Miami +139 over Atlanta

Posted on at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +139 BET365 +135 Sportsinteraction +136 888Sport +135

Miami +139 over Atlanta 

7:20 PM EST. It’s been a mixed bag for Sandy Alcantara (RHP - MIA) thus far in 2023, as he’s had a great start, a poor start and two somewhere in between through four trips to the bump. Alcantara missed his last turn with a sore bicep, but he has been cleared after pitching through a 25-pitch bullpen session on Monday. In his last turn (back on April 16), Alcantara struck out nine and walked none over his six innings pitched. He took the tough luck loss, but that 1-2 record allows us to invest in an ace at a discounted price.

Alcantara's swing & miss rate is up from 12.1% last season to 13.7% so far this year. That’s encouraging, as Alcantara has never been a flamethrower with an elite strikeout rate. He’s a finesse pitcher that relies on his change-up to fool hitters. Remember, Alcantara beat out a lot of elite pitchers to win the Cy Young award just last year. He's usually a significant favorite but his slow start this year presents with this buy low opportunity.

Bryce Elder (RHP - ATL) continued his charmed life last time out, allowing just one run on five hits through six innings, where he did not factor into the decision. So far through four starts, Edler is 2-0, but there are some red flags in his profile. His 86.7% strand rate suggests he's been lucky out there, as does an xERA that is 3.98 compared to what looks like an exceptional surface ERA of 1.14. With a low 90s fastball and a propensity for walking batters, Elder is in line for some major regression. That makes him a risky favorite against a true ace in Alcantara. Overlay.


Our Pick

Miami +139 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.78)

Chicago +118 over L.A. Angels