MLB Season Win Total
L.A Angels over 81½ -110

Posted on March 26 -- are subject to change.

Pinnacle o81½ -135  BET365  o81½ -110 Sportsinteraction o81½ -130 888Sport

Season Win Total

L.A Angels over 81½ -110

The first thing to note here is that Pinnacle Sports has the Angels over 81½ -135 while BET365 has them over this number at -110. We tend to side with Pinnacle because they have long been known as being very sharp. 

Nihilism is the rejection of all religious and moral principles, in the belief that life is meaningless. The Angels, though, not as a team or an organization but as a concept, have been for years fighting for a more brutal and empty sort of nihilism: Whatever meaning their incredible twin poles spin out, the much stronger force of the Angels’ failures—in player development, in Arte Moreno’s indifference, in the flat refusal to accept that going over the luxury tax might actually be the thing any year’s team needs to succeed—wins out. For years they’ve been destroying meaning in baseball in a much different way than the Pirates or Reds by turning so much from their transcendent superstars into an empty expanse of nothingness. This is the year things are meant to be different, and honestly it’s hard to think they won’t be, at least in some ways. But the pull of what the Angels have destroyed makes it hard not to think this year will be more of the same—the only way to keep Shohei Ohtani, if there is any way at all, is to escape the cycle.

Catcher is a great microcosm of each of the Angels’ positional groups. For the first time in a long time, there are plenty of guys around who can do the job—more, in fact, than you strictly need to fill out the field of play, which Arte Moreno appears to have directly prohibited previous general managers from attempting. The only issue with these options, behind the plate and at many other positions, is you’re not exactly sure what a lot of guys have to offer. 

Max Stassi in 2020-21 played like he had the Limitless pills. Last year, he played like he had the debilitating side effects from the Limitless pills. His DRC+ (Deserved Runs Created) has trended down from 124 to 91 to 74 in 2022, while his OPS dipped to .570, dismal even for a catcher. Stassi’s stellar framing reputation, as well as the two remaining seasons on his extension, guaranteed his continued presence on the roster, but if both of the players to follow can establish themselves at the big-league level and the 10-year veteran (he debuted with the Astros in 2013) continues to flounder—he also last season posted his first negative DRP since 2016—Stassi could find his roster spot in jeopardy. 

Logan O’Hoppe was acquired in one of two Angels-Phillies trades at the deadline last summer, in a challenge swap for Brandon Marsh, who went on to ingratiate himself to Philadelphia fans throughout the postseason and appears a candidate for near-daily play while Bryce Harper is on the mend. It’s a mark of O’Hoppe’s assured second half—he homered 11 times in 131 Double-A PA, post trade—that few have questioned the wisdom of the trade on Los Angeles’ part. He ranked second on the Angels top prospects list, with Jeffrey Paternostro noting, “he should make enough hard contact to get most of the plus raw power into games.” Service time manipulation is the only reason O’Hoppe might not make the Opening Day roster, and the odds are good he claims the starting job by mid-season or earlier. If the Angels are looking for an excuse to stash him, though, they have one.

Matt Thaiss owns one of the stranger developmental paths you’ll see, even in these later, multi-positional days. Since being selected in the first round back in 2016, he’s appeared professionally at just about every position. The thing is that Thaiss has never been particularly good at hitting. His career OPS over 1,553 Triple-A PA’s is .838, which for the PCL is basically average, and his big-league DRC+ is 84. However, for an average defensive catcher, which he appears to be, that’s a perfectly fine level of hitting talent for a back-up. He’s also out of options and has a 1.185 OPS this spring, so the Angels will likely either carry three catchers for as long as the schedule precludes a sixth starter, or option O’Hoppe. Either way, even if you don’t retain as much belief in Stassi as does the projections, the Halos have other choices to make up the difference.

The infield is probably the team’s most unsettled contingent, both in terms of the cast of characters and range of possibility. Jared Walsh was another case of Limitless-listlessness in 2022; he lost 206 points of OPS and underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome last September. He first noticed symptoms back in 2019 and is said to be completely healed, so there’s plenty of reason for optimism in his case—though the fact the surgery has had such polarizing results among pitchers, and is much rarer for batters, offers a significant counterweight. The Angels are reportedly considering platoon options at first, though those splits (.834 OPS v. RHH, .600 vs. LHP) roughly parallel his fall-off after an All-Star 2021, indicating the club has a fall-back plan in place against more than southpaws. Brandon Drury is probably the primary backup, though the depth charts have him slated for time all across the diamond.

If Walsh can rebound, Drury’s best chance to break into an everyday role is at the keystone, where he’s appeared with the second-most frequency as a big leaguer (after third base). The degree he can do so, and get into the lineup in general, depends on his ability to repeat last season’s 113 DRC+ rather than his career mark of 95. A substandard defender, Drury will have to fend off two players who are much more capable in the field, though neither is likely to match his bat. Last year was Luis Rengifo’s first time qualifying as a major leaguer, and he took a huge step, homering 17 times en route to an above-average line and 2.1 WARP. He’s not an ideal shortstop, and he’s swiped 12 bases against 8 caught stealing in his career, so it’s likely last year represents something of a ceiling. But it’d require a pretty stellar showing from Drury to oust Rengifo—though his lack of playing time for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic might have him behind his teammates with only a few days remaining until Opening Day. Rengifo and David Fletcher will both get time on either side of second base, but it’s likely the players spend more time at second and short, respectively.

Between 2019 and 2021 no Angel made as many trips to the plate as Fletcher (1,548), and it wasn’t close. Shohei Ohtani lagged more than 300 PA behind the Orange County native, and Mike Trout was another 250 back. Last year Fletcher appeared in just 61 games spread around three IL trips, the first two for a hip strain that ultimately required adductor surgery. For his career, the 28-year-old has 71% as many triples as he does home runs. Fletch has 14 career long balls and a .082 ISO. He barely ever strikes out (9.6%), and his career 95 DRC+ is actually higher than one might expect given the persistent power outage. Still, despite an extension running through 2025, if anyone’s likely to get squeezed out of playing time it’s Fletcher. Though Gio Urshela was originally slated for a utility role, he’s apparently impressed at shortstop, and his offensive upside (114 DRC+ in 2022) means he’ll likely be one of this club’s several trade acquisitions to receive daily play. And, unless things go very wrong, third base is occupied.

It’s hard to know what to say about Anthony Rendon as he approaches the pivot year of a seven-year contract having missed most of the past two seasons. He was able to make it back for the end of last season, so he didn’t have to sit out the first five games due to a suspension for… fighting in a cast? Yeah, the Angels had a really banner year, why do you ask? DRC+ didn’t lose faith in 2020, as Rendon switched leagues and shed nearly 100 points of OPS, demeriting just four points from his 146 mark for the championship-winning Nationals. He’s been away for so long it’s easy to forget just how good Rendon is: between 2016 and 2019, he had at least 597 PA, 38 doubles, and 20 home runs annually. Recapturing that form, or getting close to it, isn’t necessary for the Angels to have a successful season, but he makes the whole thing a lot more plausible. Imagine if Rendon and the two superstars are all together and all have great years. Wow. 

Compared to the infield, where there are plenty of names and not a lot of clarity about how they fit together, the Angels outfield is essentially a one-act play written for three cast members. There’s one star and two supporting players to either side. Hunter Renfroe has logged 9.1 WARP over the last four complete seasons, putting up consistently average WARP totals to go with a consistently average bat. The degree to which his stability in an outfield corner will be a breath of fresh air for Angels fans is a true indictment of their process. That would require both corners to offer average-or-better performance, though, which might ride on which version of Taylor Ward we get. Ward could be an All-Star, or struggle to maintain an average batting line and see his playing time cut into by Mickey Moniak or even Jo Adell, though Moniak’s blazing spring and the presence of Brett Phillips indicates the Angels plan to stash Adell in the minors for a sustained period to get the former blue-chipper back on track. 

Then there’s Trout and Ohtani. There’s really little need to provide either an introduction. Trout was one of four batters to slug 40 home runs last year despite failing to qualify after losing time to a back injury, putting up a .999 OPS despite one of the worst stretches of his career prior to his IL trip. Ohtani had the 10th-best OPS among qualifying hitters and, if you like DRA-, had a legitimate case as the best pitcher in baseball last year after completely reinventing his repertoire. Both just completed what they freely admitted were some of the most exciting stretches of their career; they have never in five seasons shared a complete and unhindered campaign and there could not possibly be a better time for it except for the previous half-decade. But, you know: The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, the second-best time is now.

It seems unbelievable, but the Angels rotation could actually be…good. There’s reason to believe any pitcher in the group could and arguably should outpace their projections.

Tyler Anderson, fresh off signing a three-year deal, is almost certain to regress from his 2.57 ERA as a Dodger, though DRA already heavily penalized that figure and Anderson nevertheless ended up with nearly a full win more than he’s currently projected for. He shouldn’t need Dodgers magic to slide into this rotation and continue to provide valuable innings, though he epitomizes the team’s lack of a true no. 2 behind Ohtani as well as anyone. He’s basically certain to see a .257 BABIP spike dramatically, though the Angels will probably be happy if the onetime Rockie can keep his ERA in the threes.

Reid Detmers cut his ERA nearly in half last year, to 3.77, for which he was rewarded with being slotted in third rather than fourth on the Angels SP depth chart. His strikeout and walk rates are basically right in line with league average, and that’s what DRA sees, too. It’s probably not quite as much as the club was hoping from last year’s top-ranked prospect, but a WARP is a WARP is a WARP, and another homegrown lefty had the breakout last year that Detmers didn’t.

Patrick Sandoval had always impressed—no changeup thrown as frequently saw as many whiffs per swing—but he was also frequently injured. His 27 games pitched last year was actually a professional high, even if it’s only an uninterrupted season in the context of a six-man rotation. Like Detmers, not a ton of what Sandoval offers differentiates him from other pitchers, but two starters who came up out of the system sticking in the majors, and in their pre-arb years, no less, is an unqualified win for was the most depleted pitching corps in baseball for what felt like a half-decade.

José Suarez is ordinally the Angels’ fifth starter, but it’s possible the club ends up with a fifth starter-level performance from everyone in their rotation not possessing an MVP trophy. That includes the sixth starter, presumably an out-of-options Tucker Davidson, though Griffin Canning has returned from the back injury that cost him 2022 and will likely work his way into the mix at some point. Also, Chase Silseth sells seashells by the seashore. There’s not a ton to be excited about after the ace here, but one imagines attaining home insurance would be exciting if one’s last five houses burned down.

It’s always difficult to speak about a bullpen as a unit due to the inherent uncertainty involved, but the Angels really made this difficult. His name is Raisel Iglesias and he plays for Atlanta. This would be the second year of his four-year contract; his 73 DRA- at the time of his salary dump trade ranked third among Angels pitchers, with both José Quijada and Jimmy Herget 10 points worse, and those two still 10 points superior to any Halos pitcher with any significant playing time. Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Andrew Wantz are all fine. 

In the end, the Angels look like a pretty good baseball team. 80½ wins is too low. It’s what depth in the rotation and in the field and to some anonymous degree in the bullpen, indicates. More than a quarter of the way into last year the Angels were keeping pace with the Astros, and then they lost 14 games in a row. The rubber band always snaps, so they need to be better longer than that. It’s more than possible the Angels are pretty good throughout the season, better than they have been in years. However, because nobody trusts them, we get a very beatable number. Any team with Trout, Ohtani and Rendon have a great shot to play .500 ball or much better.

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Our Pick

L.A Angels over 81½ -110 (Risking 3.3 units - To Win: 3.00)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110