Posted on March 20. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle u77½ -112  BET365  u77½ +110 Sportsinteraction u77½ -106 888Sport N/A

Chicago Cubs under 77½ +110 (No bets for us)

It’s a little cliche to say that 2020 feels like it was a decade ago at this point, but when it comes to the Cubs, the sentiment is no less true. Does it feel like they were just in the postseason three years ago? No, chances are good that what you remember, or at least associate the Cubs with, are their 71-91 and 74-88 records the past two seasons, which contained the remnants of The Good Cubs from the previous decade, until they didn’t.

The 2023 season is a bit like starting over, in the sense they’re introducing some of the Cubs they hope will be on the next Good Cubs team, but it might be a very slow start. And much of that has to do with Chicago’s choice in said new Cubs. The starting lineup has five new faces in it, but two of said faces belong to Eric Hosmer and Cody Bellinger, whose virtues at this point are: for the former, how much other teams besides the one for which he plays are paying him; for the latter, the hope that there’s still something there, even though the last time he wasn’t a disappointment actually predates the last time the Cubs were watchable.

Dansby Swanson is good and all, but he’s more a final piece for a team on the cusp than a building block—for instance, the Braves had a whole bunch of Dansby Swansons en route to a World Series in 2021 and over 100 wins in 2022. You have to sign the players when they’re available and all, but given who all was available to bring to Chicago this winter with a large enough check made out in their name, it feels like the Cubs could have gone bigger and tried to get more than one Dansby Swanson for themselves, especially with the NL Central so winnable. The Cardinals won in 2022 essentially by default, while the Brewers, the other team to finish ahead of Chicago in the division’s standings, decided they were going to start trading away present talent for future talent with the schedule balancing itself. Given that, it’s tough not to be disappointed with how the Cubs handled their offseason, but they’re at least headed in the right direction.

Catchers might be a bit alike these days, but one of the standouts just happened to be in Chicago last summer. Willson Contreras, who hit .243/.349/.466 on the season and managed to put up 2.7 WARP (third on the team) in 113 games, defected to the Cardinals. While Yan Gomes isn’t offensive, he’s also not offensive: his Deserved Runs Created (DRC+) was 33 points behind Contreras’ team-leading mark. Gomes is going to be a worse starter than Contreras, and Barnhart a worse partner than Gomes was to Contreras, so… let’s move on.

It’s difficult to see what Hosmer is expected to provide and not consider instead whether paying full price to retain Anthony Rizzo would have been worth more than the savings and a back-end top-100 prospect who remains far off from the majors. We’re here to talk about the future, yes, but said future involves Hosmer, whose hot start to 2022 propped up his final line is not fooling analytic considerations for 2023.

The projections for Nico Hoerner look better than his second base figure: he’ll pick up some playing time at short behind the shiniest new Cub, which would put his mid-level projection about one win behind last year’s breakout total. Another season like last year’s, and there should be more optimism for 2024 on the Hoerner front. Swanson, similarly, is not expected to repeat his 2022 without a bit more evidence to prove that’s who he truly is: Swanson basically just replaces what they lost when Contreras took off for St. Louis. There’s room for optimism there, at least, to believe that the age-28 Swanson that set career-bests in production has at least another couple of years like that in him, including this upcoming one but it’s a guess more than a lock.

Third base is… well, might be really bad. Four players will audition and four players might see time. That would be Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Zach McKinstry and Edwin Rios. It’s Morel’s job to lose and he probably will. Morel was better than that last year, at least at the plate, but the less said about his fielding, the better. Or is that the fewer opportunities he has to field, the better? Either way, maybe he’ll hit above his modest weight and make up for the glove again, making Hosmer the center of negative attention in the infield.

The outfield situation has less cringing, which has to feel nice if you’re a Cubs’ fan. Ian Happ was good last year, and is expected to be good once more. Simple! Cody Bellinger was not good last year, but analytics see a little bit of whatever it is the Cubs saw in him after he and the Dodgers parted ways in November, which is a positive, in the sense that hey, maybe there’s something left to Bellinger after all, but also discomforting when you consider that a good version of Bellinger is what’s being used to determine the Cubs’ projected record for 2023.

Seiya Suzuki is just 28 years old and coming off of a productive debut in ‘22, and his projection suggests a more impressive sophomore season. While the outfield lacks real depth behind its starters per the reckoning of these projections, Trey Mancini can certainly fill in and do a productive enough job of things. He’s just a bit stretched as the backup at a few positions at the moment, with time expected at first and as a designated hitter. He never quite got things going in his short stint with the Astros, but he got on base at a .347 clip with the Orioles before that, and isn’t that far removed from having some pop in his bat, either. Maybe a full offseason away from the cavern that Camden was turned into will be good for him and shore up the depth a bit.

As for the Cubs’ rotation, hey, there might be something here when you’ve got Marcus Stroman and Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly and Kyle Hendricks, and there might also be very little. Stroman is usually at least pretty good, but is occasionally great, and maybe this will be one of those great years! It’s at least more likely than it being one of his rare bad ones, right? Taillon never ended up as good as his prospect potential suggested, but he’s still an average pitcher who reliably takes his turn when his ligaments are all attached like they should be. It’s worth noting the Cubs have him throwing a new slider. Drew Smyly could easily beat out his projections, but he’d have to stay on the mound long enough to do so. Kyle Hendricks was a great pitcher back when the Cubs were still making the postseason. He, too, could see a return to the old ways, but at 33 years old and with his homer numbers spiking, maybe that’s less likely than it is for his club. Especially coming off of an injury. It could blow up quickly shou;d Taillon, Smyly and Hendricks all end up on the IL at the same time. Don’t think that can’t happen because it could.

Speaking of homers, if Justin Steele can keep the ball in the park again like he did in 2022, maybe he’ll beat out his own modest projection. If any of these arms go down, prospect Hayden Wesneski, who acquitted himself well in a short stint last year, looks ready to take over but consider the lack of projected playing time: If he’s forced into more big-league innings after initially subbing in for Hendricks (who is recovering from shoulder surgery), he should be able to handle them, with Chicago maybe not even missing whichever arm went down in the process.

The bullpen could use some work. That’s an issue on its own, but when combined with a rotation that is a would guess, it’s even more of a concern. Maybe Brad Boxberger has more left in the tank and maybe Michael Fulmer can keep the ball in the park again, but there’s just too much “maybe” in here to expect or project anything good. The new and more balanced schedule can’t help them out either.

We suppose the Cubs have a chance to not be bad, which is more than you could say about how their past couple of years went. Some of it was self-inflicted, sure, but at least they remembered they could add money to the payroll to attempt to improve the team this past winter. There are massive concerns regarding the starters, the bullpen and the infield defense. Maybe there will be something here besides mediocrity, even if mediocrity is the most likely possibility. We absolutely prefer under 77½ but will pass.

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