Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 3:00 PM EST and odds are subject to change.
Detroit +165 over Baltimore
7:05 PM EST. With an awful starter going, Detroit shut out the O’s last night while out-hitting them 14-2. We mention that because two things are going on here. First, Detroit wants to spoil Baltimore’s party and 2, Baltimore is starting to crack under the pressure of a playoff race, its first in a very long time. Besides that, Austin Voth (RHP - BAL) cannot be priced like he’s Jim Palmer.
Voth, a fifth-round pick out of Washington, isn’t overpowering and instead relies on keeping hitters off-balance. His fastball sits at 87-90 mph and is backed up by a slider, change and above-average 12-6 curve. He got destroyed in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021 before catching lightning in a bottle this year. Voth is not a terrible starter. He’s effective with his off-speed stuff but he’s nowhere near being an elite pitcher either. He’s somewhere in the middle but a 2.70 ERA over his last five starts has him overpriced in a big way. That 2.70 ERA is a direct result of a very fortunate 87% strand rate. He still walked 10 batters over his last 20 frames, which could certainly be a sign of fatigue for a starter that has more innings pitched this year than he has in any of his previous six MLB seasons. As a career journeyman with an xERA of 4.36, Voth cannot be priced in this range, It’s absurd.
It's not about how you start, it's about how you finish, even if you're a starter like Joey Wentz (LHP - DET). He began the year as Joey Wince, on the IL recovering from the dreaded UCL repair, and finished in the Double-A rotation, hurling about four innings per turn. As such, he could not become Joey Wins. However, his splits and stuff grew stronger as the season ripened—his change and curve were both above-average before going under the knife—meaning he could become the prospect he once was, a.k.a Joey Whence. He has been very effective for weeks at both the minor and major league levels. Over his last two starts, he has p[osted a 1.69 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 20% K-BB. His fastball velocity has fully returned, helping the pitch to play up to an above-average offering. He's also locating his secondaries better, but a new wrinkle is that Wentz just started throwing a cutter, used only in his last two starts wherein he struck out 10 in 11 frames. Joey doesn’t bat but Joey Wins, my friends. Big overlay.
Detroit +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)