Cincinnati @ Chicago
Cincinnati +150 over Chicago

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Posted at 3:4PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati +150 over Chicago

7:40 PM EST. Justin Dunn (RHP - CIN) was removed from his previous outing due to a sore right shoulder, but he’s scheduled to go here. For how long is anyone’s guess. He’s only thrown 23 innings this year at the MLB level and just 28 innings in Triple-A so at least he’s fresh. This stuff-first project seemed to be figuring some things out in May of last year (25 IP, 2.52 ERA, 28% K) but a June shoulder strain intervened and ended his season early. Seems like something is always intervening but this kid can pitch. His swing and miss rate is strong and his velocity jumped. His BB% is still a problem though xBB% is hopeful. Dunn’s ominous fly-ball tilt is offset a tad by dominance vR. That’s his story. His health or lack of consistent playing time because of it makes him both interesting and under-the-radar. Still, we’ll live with whatever he delivers because Wade Miley (LHP - CHC) and the Cubbies priced in this range is pretty sick.

Wade Miley’s best season was in 2012. That was a decade ago. He’ll come off the 60-day DL to make a start here because the Cubs are paying him 10 million this season. Yeah, you read that right. The Reds’ decision to place Miley on waivers back in November caught many fans and experts by surprise, but the Cubs quickly pounced, acquiring his services and agreeing to pay him $10 million for the final season of his contract in 2022. For that, Chicago has gotten 19 innings which works out to about 500K per inning if he didn’t pitch again. Oh, he’s pitching again alright. Ironically, it’ll be against the team that dumped him.

In his first game of the year back in May, Miley walked five batters and struck out one in three innings. That was after a long layoff just like the one he’ll return from here. The main driver of his success last year was an unsustainable strand rate. It only took small drops in K% and ground-balls to push his xERA and xWHIP to alarming levels. Velocity trend, older pitcher, IL time in each of the last five years... that's a lot of risk to be spotting a price like this with a guy like this, no? Big overlay.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)