Minnesota @ Chicago
Chicago -1½ +135 over Minnesota

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Posted at 12:15 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Chicago -1½ +135 over Minnesota

2:10 PM EST. Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) is another arm that shows some reverse lefty/righty splits. He has really struggled against same-sided hitters (5.14 ERA, 1.61 WHIP vR), against whom his command has been marginal (15% K-BB%) and his skills have been subpar. He has been electric against lefty bats (31% K-BB%). Given his historically strong skills against righties, there's way more upside here. Giolito has been unlucky. His 5.27 misleading ERA assures us that we get him at a great discount here. His xERA is 3.75, which is bordering on elite. He also has 142 K’s 128 frames.

Now we get to the juicy part, which would be one Dylan Bundy (RHP - MIN), a starter we targeted last game out and will not relent. In that frustrating loss last game against Boston, Bundy gave up 9 hits, walked one batter and hit another in 4.2 innings. That’s 11 baserunners in 4.2 frames and only two scored in a 4-2 Minnesota win. Sickening would be an understatement if you wagered on Boston like we did. That’s cool, as we’ll get it back today with some interest.

Dylan Bundy (RHP - MIN) is barely rosterable. At best, he’s a back-end rotation filler and even that is a stretch. First, his K-BB%, K%, and swing and miss rate are all below MLB average. His velocity is at a career low and his xERA (5.19) does not forecast better days ahead. The best news is that Dyland Bundy has a 2.93 ERA over his last five starts covering 24 innings so public perception is that he’s in good form. Nothing could be further from the truth, as he’s been about the most hittable pitcher in baseball for over a month. In said 24 innings, he has struck out 12 batters with a off-the-charts line drive rate of 29%. His WHIP last game was 2.14 so he was pitching with the two or three men on base every inning. His xERA over his last five starts is 6.31, which is almost four runs higher than his surface ERA. Bundy has been on the extreme side of good luck and once again it’s just about all those hard hit balls being hit where they ain’t.

Our Pick

Chicago -1½ +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)